Nvidia is now worth more than every economy except two

NVDA’s move is less about today’s fundamentals than about the market assigning it call-option value on the entire AI capex cycle. That creates a reflexive setup: the stock becomes both the beneficiary of spending and a funding source for more spending, which is why index ownership keeps amplifying the move. The second-order winner is not just hyperscale cloud spenders, but the entire adjacent ecosystem of power, networking, and advanced packaging that inherits a longer capex runway if NVDA remains the scarce bottleneck.

The risk is not that AI demand disappears; it is that expectations outrun the digestion cycle. At this valuation scale, even a modest slowdown in order growth, a pause in enterprise deployment, or a product-transition hiccup can compress multiple turns of forward multiple quickly because the base is so large. In the near term, the market is trading on earnings proof points; over 3-6 months the more important test is whether customers keep converting pilot budgets into production deployments without elongating payment cycles or inventory builds.

Consensus is missing how concentrated the upside has become inside the trade itself. NVDA is no longer just a stock; it is a de facto factor exposure embedded in passive funds, options flows, and macro sentiment, so any air pocket can mechanically hit the broader market even if fundamentals remain intact. That makes this a classic late-cycle leadership name: still structurally advantaged, but increasingly vulnerable to de-rating if investors conclude AI is being front-loaded faster than end-demand can absorb it.