Sudan’s army declares Khartoum state ‘completely free’ of paramilitary RSF

Sudan's army (SAF) announced it has cleared Khartoum state of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after weeks of battles, marking a potential shift in the two-year civil war; the SAF now claims control of the capital Khartoum, Omdurman, and Khartoum North. This announcement follows the army's recapture of key locations in March, including the presidential palace and Khartoum airport, although fighting continues in other regions, including Darfur and Kordofan. The conflict has resulted in over 12 million people displaced and widespread violence, with control of Sudan still divided between the SAF and RSF.

Analysis

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have announced the complete removal of the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from Khartoum state, which includes the capital Khartoum, Omdurman, and Khartoum North. This development follows weeks of intense battles and significant SAF gains in March, such as the recapture of the presidential palace and Khartoum airport. Despite the SAF's declaration and control over key urban centers in and around the capital, the civil war, now in its third year, continues unabated in other parts of Sudan. Fighting persists in el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, and along crucial supply lines in Kordofan, with reports of intense recent battles in southern Omdurman's Salha area, a former RSF stronghold where the SAF recovered weapons, drones, and jamming systems. Control of Sudan remains divided: the SAF holds sway in the north and east, including the populous Khartoum state, while the RSF controls large swathes of western Sudan, including most of Darfur. The RSF has reportedly resorted to drone strikes, targeting energy infrastructure in areas like Khartoum and Port Sudan where it has lost ground. The conflict has precipitated a severe humanitarian crisis, displacing over 12 million people, causing tens of thousands of fatalities, and exposing many to ethnicity-based violence, with foreign funding and weapons increasingly influencing the war's dynamics.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the evolving security situation in Sudan for its potential to further destabilize the Horn of Africa region, which could impact regional commodity flows and logistics, particularly given the reported targeting of energy infrastructure.
• A thorough reassessment of any direct or indirect exposure to Sudan and its immediately neighboring countries is warranted, factoring in the significantly heightened geopolitical risk and the profound, likely protracted, economic disruption stemming from the civil war.
• Consider the broader implications for sentiment towards emerging markets, especially in Africa, should the conflict escalate or attract more substantial foreign intervention, as indicated by the article's mention of increasing foreign funding and weapons in the war.