Antimony surge highlights North American supply gap

Antimony prices have surged over 800% since 2020, driven by China's dominant 70% market share and recent export controls, which established a two-tiered global pricing system and caused a 21% global output drop in June 2025. This crisis exposes a critical North American supply gap, forcing defense and battery industries to pay extreme premiums and accelerating efforts to develop domestic processing and new primary sources, such as Canagold Resources' New Polaris project, which holds over 5,000 tonnes of antimony. The ongoing volatility highlights the urgent need for resilient supply chains for this strategically vital metal.

Analysis

A critical global supply crisis in antimony has driven prices up by over 800% since 2020, exposing significant vulnerabilities for Western industries. The primary catalyst is China's tightening control over its dominant 70% share of global production, culminating in export halts in March 2025 that created a two-tiered pricing system. This has forced international buyers in the defense, automotive, and battery sectors to pay substantial premiums, with global output falling by more than 21% in June 2025 alone. The annual demand of 230,000-240,000 tonnes, particularly the 10,000 tonnes of high-purity antimony, is now severely constrained. In response, North American and European entities are urgently seeking to de-risk their supply chains. This includes major downstream investments, such as Clarios's planned $1 billion processing plant, and a renewed focus on new primary sources. Canagold Resources' New Polaris project in British Columbia exemplifies this trend, with a recent feasibility study identifying over 5,000 tonnes of antimony, representing a potential $200-$300 million in untabulated value. The persistence of these supply shocks suggests that price volatility will remain a key feature of the market until new, non-Chinese production and processing capacities, which will take years to develop, come online.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the severe supply-demand imbalance driven by China's export controls, investors should anticipate continued price strength and volatility in the antimony market, presenting opportunities in commodity-linked instruments or producers outside of Chinese influence.
• Companies heavily dependent on antimony, particularly in the battery and defense sectors, face sustained margin pressure and operational risks; investors should assess their mitigation strategies and exposure to supply chain disruptions.
• Junior mining companies with advanced-stage antimony assets in stable jurisdictions, such as Canagold Resources, warrant close attention, as progress on metallurgical studies and formal inclusion of antimony credits in economic models could serve as significant valuation catalysts.
• Monitor government policy developments in the US and Canada, as subsidies or strategic investment programs for critical minerals could significantly de-risk and accelerate the development of domestic antimony projects, altering the long-term competitive landscape.