Corn Post Mixed Thursday Close

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning, following mixed trading on Thursday where nearby July contracts rose while others declined. Export sales for the week ending May 15th totaled 1.19 MMT, a decrease from the previous week but a substantial increase year-over-year, with Japan and Mexico being key purchasers. The International Grains Council projects increased world corn production and stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Analysis

Corn futures are exhibiting modest downward pressure on Friday morning, with most contracts down 1 to 2 ¼ cents, following a mixed session on Thursday where the nearby July contract gained 2 cents while other contracts declined by 1 to 3 cents. Preliminary open interest data from Thursday revealed short covering in the July contract, evidenced by a decrease of 7,425 contracts, contrasting with an increase of 7,862 contracts across other months, suggesting a rotation of positions among market participants. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price firmed by 2 1/2 cents to $4.36 1/4, indicating some strength in the physical market for immediate delivery, although new crop cash prices eased by 2 cents to $4.12 5/8. Export sales for the week ending May 15, at 1.19 MMT, were down 29% from the prior week but remained robust year-over-year, marking a 30.7% increase, with Japan (370,900 MT) and Mexico (219,300 MT) as principal buyers. New crop sales also contributed 218,371 MT. Looking further ahead, the International Grains Council projects a 3 MMT increase in both world corn production and ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year, with stocks anticipated to reach 284 MMT, potentially signaling more ample global supplies. A current Taiwanese tender for 65,000 MT of corn, with a deadline next Wednesday, provides a near-term demand indicator. The market will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day, which will also delay government reports.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the spread dynamics between nearby July futures and deferred contracts, alongside cash market movements, for signals on evolving short-term demand versus longer-term supply expectations.
• Evaluate positions considering the dichotomy of strong current export demand, highlighted by a 30.7% year-over-year increase in sales, against the International Grains Council's forecast for increased global production and stocks in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• Anticipate potential market adjustments following the Memorial Day holiday, factoring in the impact of delayed government reports and the outcome of the Taiwanese tender for 65,000 MT of corn.