Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Xiaomi stock as 17 Pro Max drives sales

Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating and HK$66.00 price target for Xiaomi Corp (HK:1810), citing the exceptionally strong initial sales of its new Xiaomi 17 smartphone series. The series, launched September 27, broke 2025 domestic smartphone first-day sales volume and gross merchandise value records within five minutes, with the premium 17 Pro Max model comprising over 50% of the series' initial sales volume. Goldman Sachs estimates the Pro series accounted for more than 80% of first-day sales, significantly exceeding prior generations and offsetting earlier share price volatility driven by high expectations and base model concerns.

Analysis

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its Buy rating and HK$66.00 price target on Xiaomi Corp, driven by exceptionally strong initial sales data for the new Xiaomi 17 smartphone series launched on September 27. The launch set a new record for first-day sales volume and gross merchandise value for a domestic smartphone in 2025, achieving this milestone within five minutes of going on sale. A critical insight from the launch is the significant shift in product mix towards higher-end models. The premium 17 Pro series constituted over 80% of the first day's sales volume, a stark contrast to approximately one-third for previous generations throughout their entire lifecycle. The top-tier 17 Pro Max model alone accounted for more than 50% of the series' initial sales. This favorable mix is positioned to offset concerns about potentially soft sales of the base model, which contributed to share price volatility last week, including an 8% drop on September 26. The strong performance of the high-margin Pro models provides a solid justification for Goldman Sachs's bullish outlook, suggesting a potential uplift in average selling prices and overall profitability.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the strong consumer uptake of the high-end Xiaomi 17 Pro and Pro Max models as a key positive catalyst, as the favorable product mix can drive higher average selling prices and gross margins.
• The recent share price volatility, driven by pre-launch expectations, appears to be resolving in favor of a bullish outlook given the record-breaking sales figures, which counter prior concerns about base model weakness.
• It is prudent to monitor follow-through sales data and channel checks to confirm if this strong initial demand and premium-heavy mix are sustained, as this will be critical to validating the long-term thesis and the HK$66.00 price target.