Corn Rides Out Early Back and Forth Trade to Close with Gains

Corn futures closed higher on Thursday, supported by the weekly Export Sales report showing old crop sales of 942,276 MT, within trade estimates, and new crop sales of 160,116 MT, also within expectations. April Census data revealed a 6.08% increase in corn shipments from March and a 21.06% increase year-over-year, marking the second-largest April on record, while Brazil's corn exports in May significantly decreased compared to the previous year.

Analysis

Corn futures registered gains in the Thursday session, with July contracts inching up by ¾ cent while other contracts saw increases ranging from 3 to 5 cents; notably, December 2025 corn closed at $4.48 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents. The national average cash corn price edged up by one penny to $4.15, and new crop cash gained 3 3/4 cents to $4.04. Weekly Export Sales data indicated old crop corn sales of 942,276 metric tons (MT) for the week ending May 29, falling within trade estimates but marking a 20.2% decrease from the corresponding week last year. Mexico was a prominent buyer, securing 362,300 MT. New crop sales were recorded at 160,116 MT, also aligning with analysts' expectations. A significant positive indicator was the April Census data, which showed robust corn shipments of 7.78 million metric tons (MMT). This volume represented a 6.08% increase from March and a substantial 21.06% rise year-over-year, making it the second-largest April shipment total on record. However, April distillers' exports declined by 7.83% year-over-year to 894,197 MT, and ethanol shipments dropped 19.58% from the previous year's monthly record to 172.26 million gallons. A critical factor for global supply is Brazil's significantly curtailed May corn exports, which amounted to only 38,928 MT, a stark reduction from the 413,374 MT exported in May of the prior year. This constraint on Brazilian supply, combined with recent private purchases of 326,000 MT of corn by South Korean importers, provides a supportive undercurrent for prices, contributing to the market's mildly positive sentiment and bullish tone.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the evolving global supply landscape, particularly the impact of sharply lower Brazilian May corn exports juxtaposed with strong U.S. April shipment volumes, as this tension will likely influence price stability.
• Consider the current mildly positive sentiment, supported by robust U.S. shipment data and significant South Korean purchases, but weigh this against the cautionary signals from declining year-over-year old crop export sales and weaker ethanol and distillers grains export figures when adjusting positions.
• Evaluate overall exposure to corn, recognizing that while strong U.S. export performance and constrained Brazilian supply offer potential price support, the softness in related markets like ethanol and distillers grains could temper bullish outlooks.