Affordability Shifts Buyer, Seller Behavior

Realtor.com’s November report finds the U.S. housing market in late‑2025 dominated by two trends: a surge in delistings—up 37.9% year‑over‑year and 45.5% YTD—with a delisting-to-new-listing ratio of 0.27 (highest pressure in Miami, Denver and Houston), and a flight of buyers into lower‑cost “refuge markets” such as Grand Rapids, St. Louis, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh (PPSF gains ~3.7–5.5% YoY). At the national level inventory has risen 12.6% YoY (25th consecutive month of gains) even as the median list price eased to $415,000 (-0.4% YoY), price per square foot declined 1.0% YoY, pending sales slipped 1.0% YoY, and 18% of listings had price cuts—signaling a mismatch between seller expectations and buyer affordability. Realtor.com expects a gradual, uneven improvement into 2026 as mortgage rates stabilize and more inventory comes online, but current seller retreat and concentrated demand in affordable metros point to continued market bifurcation and tempered transaction and price momentum.

Analysis

Realtor.com’s November report documents a material seller retreat: delistings rose 37.9% year‑over‑year and 45.5% year‑to‑date, with the delisting‑to‑new‑listing ratio at 0.27 in October (meaning 27 homes removed per 100 new listings) and particularly acute pressure in Miami (45/100), Denver (39/100) and Houston (37/100). Transaction momentum is softening—pending sales fell 1.0% YoY, median days on market lengthened to 64 (three days more than a year ago), and 18.0% of listings had price cuts, up 1.3 percentage points YoY—even as the national median list price only ticked down to $415,000 (-0.4% YoY).

Buyers are reallocating into lower‑cost “refuge markets,” where price‑per‑square‑foot gains are strongest: Grand Rapids (+5.5% YoY PPSF), St. Louis (+5.0%), Cleveland (+4.5%), Milwaukee (+4.2%) and Pittsburgh (+3.7%). These metros remain 20–30% below the national median and are posting sustained appreciation, reflecting demand migration rather than broad market strength; long‑term measures show list prices up 36.1% and PPSF up 48.4% since November 2019.

Inventory has increased for the 25th consecutive month (+12.6% YoY), but growth is decelerating from a ~30% peak and remains uneven versus pre‑pandemic norms across regions. Realtor.com expects gradual improvement into 2026 as mortgage rates stabilize and inventory grows, but current dynamics imply continued bifurcation between affordable, in‑demand refuge metros and pressured higher‑cost markets while seller expectations adjust.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reposition exposure away from housing assets concentrated in high‑delisting metros (notably Miami, Denver, Houston) until delisting‑to‑new‑listing and price‑cut rates normalize, Consider increasing selective exposure to builders, REITs or regional plays focused on affordable refuge markets (Grand Rapids, St. Louis, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh) where PPSF gains indicate durable demand, Monitor leading indicators—delisting ratio, share of price cuts, pending‑sales trend and mortgage rate trajectory—and use stabilization in those metrics as a catalyst to add longer‑duration housing or mortgage‑sensitive positions