Invitation to presentation of AQ Group's Q1 interim report on April 23, 2026

AQ Group will publish its interim report for Jan–Mar 2026 on 23 April at 08:00 CEST, with a conference call for analysts, media and investors at 09:00 CEST. The call will be presented in English by CEO James Ahrgren and CFO Christina Hegg; a Teams link and dial-in ([phone], code 382 916 099#) are provided — this is a routine scheduled earnings release with limited expected market impact.

Analysis

The immediate market test will be management’s signal on order intake/backlog quality and margin trajectory rather than headline revenue — those datapoints move forward-looking free cash flow by multiple quarters through production scheduling and supplier commitments. A modest beat on margins (e.g., +100–200bp) can convert into 20–30% upside in a 3–6 month window because the business lever leverages fixed-cost absorption; conversely, a backlog hit from a large OEM pause typically materializes as a -15–25% EPS swing over 6–12 months as volumes rebase.

Second-order winners from a positive print are likely to be upstream automation and local machining suppliers that will see order flow re-accelerate 2–4 quarters after AQ re-enters higher utilization bands; losers include low-cost offshore contract manufacturers if AQ signals reshoring or higher onshore content. Management commentary on pricing pass-through, commodity hedges and FX translation is the control knob — a 5–10% SEK move or a 50–150bp change in raw material inflation materially changes reported growth and margin narrative for the next two reporting cycles.

Key tail risks: large-customer concentration and working-capital swings (inventory build or unwind) that can flip free cash by tens of millions SEK within a quarter; also delivery disruptions or quality issues that could delay revenue recognition for months. Near-term catalyst windows are days (earnings release and call), medium-term are 3–6 months (order book conversion) and long-term 12–24 months (structural customer wins, reshoring or M&A), and any reversal will be driven by either sudden OEM order cancellations or an unexpected capital-intensive contract win being announced.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Event directional (buy-call spread): Buy AQ B (Nasdaq Stockholm: AQ B) 6-month ATM call / sell 6-month 10% OTM call to create a financed call spread sized at 1–2% NAV. Rationale: captures a positive surprise to margins/order intake with capped downside; target 30–50% return if margins expand by 100–200bp, max loss = premium paid (~100%).
• Protective hedge (puts): Buy 3-month 10% OTM put or 3-month 10/5% put spread on AQ B sized to hedge 3–5% of portfolio exposure into the print. Rationale: protects against a -15–25% gap down from order cancellations or negative guidance with controlled premium outlay.
• Relative value pair (sector rotate): Long AQ B (1% NAV) / Short SKF B (STO: SKF B) (1% NAV) for 3–6 months. Rationale: long AQ if management signals higher-engineering-content wins and margin gearing; short SKF to hedge broad industrial cyclicality and capture idiosyncratic execution upside. Expect 2:1 upside/downside if AQ out-executes peers; stop-loss pair at 8% adverse move.
• Momentum exit trigger: If management flags sustained backlog growth and 200bp+ margin improvement, take profits or reduce exposure at a 25–40% gross price move (3–6 months). Conversely, if organic orders fall two consecutive quarters, close longs and trim exposures within 5 trading days to limit realized drawdowns to ~20%.