Looking for Stocks with Positive Earnings Momentum? Check Out These 2 Oils and Energy Names

Zacks' Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool identifies stocks with a high probability of beating earnings estimates by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Historically, combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has resulted in a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, yielding average annual returns of 28.3% over a 10-year backtest. PBF Energy (PBF) and Bloom Energy (BE) are cited as current examples, both exhibiting positive ESPs and a Zacks Rank #3, suggesting a strong likelihood of outperforming analyst expectations in their upcoming reports.

Analysis

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model is presented as a quantitative tool for identifying stocks likely to beat quarterly earnings expectations. The methodology, which compares the most recent analyst estimates to the consensus, has demonstrated historical efficacy; a combination of a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better has preceded a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, generating an average annual return of 28.3% in a 10-year backtest. The analysis highlights two specific energy sector equities, PBF Energy (PBF) and Bloom Energy (BE), as currently qualifying under this model. PBF Energy, with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), shows a positive ESP of +15.90%, driven by a Most Accurate Estimate of -$0.52 per share versus a consensus of -$0.62. Similarly, Bloom Energy, also ranked #3 (Hold), has a positive ESP of +18.06%, with its Most Accurate Estimate at $0.09 per share compared to a consensus of $0.07. Based on this quantitative screen, both companies are flagged as having a statistically significant probability of reporting earnings above analyst expectations in their upcoming releases on October 30 and November 6, 2025, respectively.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with an event-driven or short-term tactical focus could consider establishing positions in PBF Energy and Bloom Energy ahead of their earnings releases to potentially capitalize on a positive price reaction to an earnings beat.
• The neutral Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) for both companies suggests they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market, so investors should weigh the potential short-term catalyst from an earnings beat against this more moderate medium-term outlook.
• While the model's 70% historical success rate is compelling, investors must factor in the 30% probability of a miss, and should therefore manage position sizes to account for potential downside volatility associated with a negative earnings surprise.
• Beyond these specific tickers, portfolio managers could utilize the Earnings ESP filter as a screening tool to identify other potential earnings-beat candidates across their coverage universe.