NWSA Q4 Earnings in Line With Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/Y

News Corporation (NWSA) reported mixed fiscal Q4 2025 results, with revenues of $2.11 billion exceeding consensus by 0.26% (up 1% YoY) and total EBITDA rising 6%, primarily driven by strong digital performance in its Digital Real Estate Services (+4% revenue) and Dow Jones (+7% revenue) segments, notably from professional information and digital subscriptions. While EPS of 19 cents met estimates but declined 5% year-over-year, and traditional Book Publishing and News Media segments faced revenue declines, the company's strategic shift towards digital and professional information continues to underpin growth. NWSA shares reacted with a modest 0.75% after-hours gain, reflecting investor recognition of the underlying digital strength amidst broader market challenges impacting legacy and interest-rate sensitive businesses.

Analysis

News Corporation's fiscal Q4 2025 results present a bifurcated performance, underscoring a successful but incomplete transition towards digital and professional services. While headline revenue grew a marginal 1% to $2.11 billion and EPS declined 5% to $0.19, the underlying segment data reveals significant strength in key growth areas. The Dow Jones segment was the clear standout, with revenue increasing 7% year-over-year, driven by an 8% rise in circulation and subscription revenue. This was powered by its professional information business, where Risk & Compliance revenues surged 21%, and a 9% growth in digital-only subscriptions at The Wall Street Journal. This high-margin, recurring revenue business now sees digital account for 83% of its total revenue. Similarly, the Digital Real Estate Services segment grew revenue by 4% and adjusted EBITDA by a robust 16%, demonstrating pricing power and successful partnerships that offset a 13% decline in lead volume caused by high mortgage rates. In contrast, the legacy-oriented Book Publishing and News Media segments reported revenue declines of 4% each, citing softer consumer spending and lower advertising revenues, respectively. This divergence highlights that while the company's strategic pivot is generating strong results in targeted areas, it remains exposed to cyclical consumer weakness and secular pressures in its traditional media assets.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view News Corp as a portfolio of assets with distinct drivers, where the high-growth, high-margin Dow Jones professional information business is currently offsetting cyclical weakness in real estate and secular declines in legacy media.
• Monitor housing market indicators and interest rate trends closely, as the Digital Real Estate segment's 13% drop in lead volume indicates significant sensitivity, suggesting potential for a strong rebound if macroeconomic conditions ease.
• Focus on the growth trajectory of digital subscriptions, particularly at The Wall Street Journal and The Times, as this is the primary metric indicating the success of monetizing premium content against the backdrop of declining user engagement at ad-supported properties like The Sun and New York Post.
• Given the flat adjusted revenues but 6% EBITDA growth, continue to assess the company's cost management and ability to improve margins through its strategic mix shift toward more profitable digital services.