Notable Tuesday Option Activity: FUBO, BX, WULF

Blackstone (BX) options traded 26,703 contracts today (≈2.7M underlying shares), equal to ~64.8% of BX's one‑month average daily volume (4.1M shares); the most active contract was the $115 put expiring March 20, 2026 with 1,519 contracts (~151,900 shares). TeraWulf (WULF) saw 155,544 option contracts (~15.6M underlying shares), about 62.8% of its one‑month ADTV (24.8M shares), led by the $15 call expiring February 20, 2026 with 14,738 contracts (~1.5M shares). These elevated option flows represent sizable intraday positioning that could exert short‑term influence on underlying liquidity and price discovery.

Analysis

Market structure: Today’s option flow is concentrated and large relative to ADV — BX’s $115 March 20 put activity (~151,900 shares) and WULF’s $15 Feb 20 calls (~1.5M shares) imply dealer delta-hedging flows on the order of mid-six-figure to low seven-figure share movements, sufficient to move small-to-medium cap names 2–8% over days. Buyers of BX puts likely create net selling pressure (dealers shorting stock to neutralize positive delta); large WULF call buys should mechanically create buying pressure as dealers buy underlying to hedge.

Risk assessment: Tail risks differ by ticker — WULF: bitcoin price swings, energy/regulatory clampdowns, or power-contract outages can wipe >50% of value in weeks; BX: credit-market shock, fund-flow reversal, or regulatory scrutiny of private-asset fees could compress NAVs 10–30% over quarters. Immediate horizon (days): hedge flows and gamma; short-term (weeks): option expiry pin risk; long-term (quarters): fundamentals and macro/interest-rate sensitivity. Hidden dependencies include block trades, risk reversals, or delta-neutral spread trades that can mask directional intent; key catalysts: BTC moves, NDAQ filings, and BX quarterly flows.

Trade implications: For WULF, prefer short-dated call-spread exposure to capture dealer hedging (buy Feb 20 2026 $15-$20 call spread, 1% notional, target +50–100%, cut at -60%). For BX, use a defined-risk bearish hedge: buy Mar 20 2026 115/105 put spread (1–2% notional) as portfolio insurance if BX closes below $115 for 3 consecutive sessions. Consider a relative pair (long WULF call spread, short 0.5% MARA equity) to isolate idiosyncratic gamma vs Bitcoin beta.

Contrarian angles: The market may misread these blocks as directional when they are likely hedges or structured-sell trades; historical parallels (single-strike surge in 2018–2021) show short-term volatility spikes but limited long-run drift. If dealers are saturating hedges, forced liquidations can overshoot — opportunistic entry/exit should target option expiry windows (within 7–14 days) and use strict size limits to avoid gamma whipsaw.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical long WULF Feb 20 2026 $15–$20 call spread sized at 1% of portfolio notional to capture dealer hedging upside; take profits at +50–100% and cut losses at -60% of premium (time horizon: next 2–3 weeks).
• Buy a defined-risk bearish hedge on BX: Mar 20 2026 115/105 put spread representing 1–2% of portfolio to protect against a 10–30% downside in alternatives/credit stress over the next 1–3 months; increase only if BX closes below $115 for three sessions.