'He Gets Us' debuts new Super Bowl ad with hope for viewers to ‘take a step towards Jesus’

Come Near’s “He Gets Us” campaign will run a new Super Bowl ad titled “Is there more to life than more?” (directed by Salomon Ligthelm) during the second half of Sunday’s Seahawks-Patriots game, with additional regional spots in Portland, San Francisco, Denver, Wichita, Kansas City and Oklahoma City. The creative, part of a “Loaded Words” initiative and a broader tent‑pole strategy, aims to drive engagement around faith and cultural reflection; the campaign, launched in 2021, has generated roughly 10 million YouTube views but carries limited direct financial implications beyond potential media attention and brand/reputation effects.

Analysis

Market structure: Live-event ad inventory (Super Bowl) disproportionately benefits broadcast owners and platforms that monetize social engagement; expect short-term pricing power for FOX Corp (FOXA), Comcast (CMCSA) and Disney (DIS) around the event window as CPMs remain scarce. Social platforms (META, SNAP) capture incremental post-game attention and viewership-driven ad clicks, while app-only CTV players (ROKU) face relative audience dilution; supply of premium live inventory is effectively fixed in the near term, supporting ad-rate resilience for 1-3 months.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include brand backlash or coordinated boycotts that could force short-term ad pullbacks and reputational damage to broadcasters — treat as low-probability but high-impact (5–15% revenue swing for exposed regional/sports ad sales). Immediate (days) impact is engagement volatility; short-term (weeks) is guidance sensitivity in next earnings cycles; long-term (quarters) depends on sustained advertiser appetite for premium placements. Hidden dependencies: platform algorithm amplification, advertiser contract timing, and regional ad-market health.

Trade implications: Tactical positions should favor broadcast and social-platform exposure and hedge streaming/CTV names: short-window (1–3 month) overweight FOXA (2% portfolio) and small options exposure to META/SNAP (0.5–1% each in 1-month calls) to capture engagement upside; initiate a modest short in ROKU (1% portfolio) or buy 3-month puts as a hedge against live-viewership substitution. Use earnings/guide beats/misses (±2–3% ad revenue variance) as add/reduce triggers.

Contrarian angle: Consensus underestimates that noncommercial/ad-funded buyers (nonprofits) are willing to pay top-dollar for attention, structurally tightening premium inventory and supporting CPMs beyond the event; conversely, markets may be underpricing the asymmetric downside for ad-dependent streaming outfits if live-sports viewing re-concentrates. Hedge with small protective puts on media longs if ad guidance misses by >4% within 60 days.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2% net-long position in FOX Corp (FOXA) tactically for 1–3 months ahead of next ad-cycle; add another 1% if quarterly ad revenue guidance prints >+2% vs consensus; hard stop at -12% or sell into a +10% move.
• Allocate 0.5–1% notional to 1-month near-the-money call options on Meta Platforms (META) and Snap (SNAP) (split exposure), to capture post‑game social engagement upside; close within 30 days or on a >30% option gain.
• Initiate a 1% short position in Roku (ROKU) or buy 3-month puts sized to 1% if available, targeting audience share reversion to linear/sports; add if quarterly active-user or engagement metrics miss by >3%.
• Set a monitoring trigger: within 30–60 days, if combined broadcaster ad-revenue guidance misses consensus by >3–4%, increase hedges across ad-dependent media by +1–2% and buy protective puts on FOXA/CMCSA sized to 0.5–1%.