Optomed Plc: Financial Statements Bulletin January – December 2025

Optomed reported FY2025 revenue of EUR 17.10m, up 13.7% (currency-adjusted +15.4%), driven by Devices growth of 43.1% to EUR 7.62m while Software fell 2.5% to EUR 9.48m. Full-year EBITDA was negative EUR -3.53m (-20.6% margin) and net loss widened to EUR -6.64m; Q4 revenue fell 5.6% to EUR 4.81m with EBITDA of EUR -1.33m (-27.7%). The company raised ~EUR 6.0m in a directed share issue (1.76m shares at EUR 3.40) leaving cash of EUR 9.9m, cited US dollar weakness and US import tariffs as headwinds, launched the Lumo camera and expanded Aurora AEYE AI recurring revenue, and expects 2026 revenue to grow versus 2025.

Analysis

Market structure: Optomed (LIDRW) sits at the intersection of handheld devices and AI screening; winners are vendors with FDA‑cleared AI (Optomed + AEYE partner) and global distributors that grew in Q4, while OEMs reliant on U.S. capex and Thailand manufacturing face margin pressure from tariffs. Devices showed +43% y/y in 2025 to €7.6m but Q4 comps were weak (–6% q/q y/y) because of a one‑off €1.5m 2024 order; that implies demand is real but lumpy and pricing power is limited by tariffs and FX (USD weakened vs EUR). Cross‑asset: equity volatility for LIDRW should rise around quarterly prints; modest net‑cash (€9.9m) cushions credit risk so corporate debt spreads unlikely to widen materially; USD/EUR moves >5% will materially swing reported revenue/profitability.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include termination of the Aurora AEYE revenue‑share (high impact to recurring revenue), sudden tariff increases between US/Thailand raising COGS >200–500bps, and adverse reimbursement/HEDIS policy changes in the US that reduce demand. Immediate (days) risks: price reaction to the directed share issue discount and Q1 guide cadence; short term (weeks–months): FX moves, tariff rulings, and AEYE commercial milestones; long term (quarters–years): durable ARR ramp and margin recovery if sales execution improves. Hidden dependencies: significant revenue-share dependency on AI partner, concentrated US capex customers, and manufacturing concentration in Thailand. Catalysts: FDA/contract wins, large distributor contracts, and any reversal in USD strength.

Trade implications: Direct play: take a tactical 2–3% long position in LIDRW (equity) targeting +50% upside in 6–12 months if Aurora ARR accelerates and Q2 shows sequential devices growth; use 20% stop‑loss. Options: if liquid, buy a 6‑month call spread (buy ATM, sell 30% OTM) sized to 0.5–1% portfolio for asymmetric upside while capping premium. Pair trade: long LIDRW 2% vs short IHI (iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF) 1% to hedge macro/device softness while keeping exposure to Optomed’s AI upside; rebalance after Q2 results.

Contrarian: Consensus fixes on US ‘turbulence’ and tariffs may be overstated — recurring Aurora AEYE revenue has grown every quarter and could sustain valuation re‑rating once sales cycles shorten; the market may be over‑pricing execution risk relative to balance sheet (net cash ~€9.9m) and FY26 growth guide. Overreaction risk: share issue dilution is real but proceeds (~€6m) materially extend runway; downside could be capped if Devices gross margin holds above ~55% and Aurora ARR growth >10% q/q. Watch for unexpected negatives: AEYE contract termination, major tariff jump, or loss of a top distributor — any of these should trigger immediate exit.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in LIDRW (Optomed) within 2–6 weeks, target +50% in 6–12 months if FY26 revenue growth is confirmed; set a 20% hard stop and trim half at +30% gains.
• If options liquid, implement a cost‑controlled bullish spread: buy 6‑month ATM calls on LIDRW and sell 30% OTM calls (size 0.5–1% portfolio) to capture upside while limiting premium exposure; close or roll after Q2 (Aug 2026) earnings.
• Execute a relative value pair: long LIDRW 2% vs short IHI 1% (dollar‑neutral tilt) for 3–9 months to isolate Optomed AI/device upside vs broad U.S. med‑device cyclicality; reassess after May 6 Q1 report.
• Reduce/remove exposure if any of the following occur: (a) Devices revenue contracts q/q for two consecutive quarters, (b) group gross margin drops below 60%, or (c) USD/EUR strengthens by >5% vs current levels (materially compressing reported revenue).