Invitation to telephone conference concerning Duni AB (publ) year-end report 1 January – 31 December 2025

Duni AB will publish its year‑end report for 1 January–31 December 2025 at 07:45 CET on Friday 6 February, with a presentation via telephone conference and webcast at 10:00 CET (registration links provided). Contact details for Head of Communications Amanda Larsson are included. Duni, listed on Nasdaq Stockholm under the ticker DUNI, is a market leader in table‑setting and take‑away products with about 2,800 employees across 26 countries and production sites in Sweden, Slovenia, Germany, Poland, Thailand and the UK—key operational context for investors reviewing the upcoming results.

Analysis

Market structure: DUNI (ticker DUNI) is an event-driven small-cap in sustainable table-setting and take-away packaging; near-term winners are suppliers to hospitality/takeaway chains and compostable-material producers (BioPak segment), while commodity plastic-focused peers could be pressured as buyers shift to higher-margin eco-products. Duni’s diversified production footprint (SE/EU/Thailand/UK) gives pricing/leverage optionality versus pure-import peers; a strong Q4 report or raised FY26 guidance would increase pricing power and could compress spreads to competitors by +100–300bps over 12 months.

Risk assessment: Immediate risk window is Feb 6 release and call (days); short-term risks (weeks–months) include FX moves (SEK/EUR/THB swings >3% can alter reported EBITDA by mid-single digits) and raw-material or energy spikes that could swing margins ±200–400bps. Tail risks: accelerated EU single-use regulation or shutdown at a production site (Thailand/Poland) could cut FY EBITDA by >10% in downside scenarios; catalysts to watch are the Feb 6 guidance, EU regulatory updates over next 3–12 months, and order-backlog commentary.

Trade implications: For event-driven alpha, favor small, size-constrained positions: establish 1–3% long DUNI 1–2 trading days pre-release to capture upside if guidance improves; use stop-loss at -8% and target +15–30% within 4 weeks. If options available/liquid, purchase an ATM straddle expiring in March (cost cap 0.5–1.0% of portfolio) to capture volatility spike. Consider a relative-value pair: long DUNI vs short OMX Stockholm Small Cap index (to isolate DUNI idiosyncratic upside), size net-neural and rebalance after the call.

Contrarian angles: Consensus will treat the call as routine; missing is the structural tailwind from global takeaway demand (could drive+5–10% organic growth in FY26) and margin mix uplift from BioPak. If the stock gaps down on a modest margin miss (<150bps), that may be an overreaction—opportunistic add zone: 10–20% below pre-call price with a 6–12 month horizon. Conversely, a beat + upgraded guidance could prompt M&A speculation; cap exposure accordingly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 1–3% long position in DUNI (ticker DUNI) 1–2 trading days prior to the Feb 6 year‑end release to capture event upside; set a hard stop-loss at -8% and plan to take profits at +15–30% within 4 weeks if guidance confirms margin recovery.
• If listed options are liquid, buy an ATM straddle on DUNI expiring in March 2026, sizing cost to no more than 0.5–1.0% of portfolio to capture an earnings-driven volatility spike; roll or close within 7–14 days post-call depending on realized vol and guidance.
• Establish a relative-value pair: long DUNI (1–2% net exposure) and short OMX Stockholm Small Cap (size to net-neutral beta) to isolate idiosyncratic upside; unwind within 2–6 weeks after the conference or sooner if gross margin guidance misses by >200bps.
• If Feb 6 report misses and gross margin guidance is cut by >150–200bps, reduce DUNI exposure to zero within 48 hours and re-evaluate at a 10–20% lower price for re-entry on signs of inventory/work-capital normalization.
• Increase European sustainable-packaging exposure by +1–2% (rotate from commodity plastic packaging names) over the next 3–12 months; prioritize names with diversified production footprints and >50% revenue exposure to foodservice/takeaway channels.