Wheat futures are experiencing a broad rebound, with CBT and KC contracts up 14-15 cents and MPLS up 3-4 cents, supported by robust U.S. export commitments totaling 8.259 MMT, which are ahead of the average pace. This bullish momentum is further influenced by a retreating dollar index and mixed global supply estimates, including a reduced 2025/26 Argentina crop forecast of 20 MMT and progressing harvest with improved conditions in France.
Wheat futures are demonstrating a significant bullish rebound, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) and Kansas City (KC) contracts posting gains of 13 to 15 cents. This upward momentum is underpinned by strong U.S. export demand, as commitments for the marketing year have reached 8.259 million metric tons (MMT), representing 36% of the USDA's annual projection and outpacing the five-year average of 35%. A concurrent retreat in the U.S. dollar index is providing an additional tailwind by enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. wheat on the global market. The global supply outlook presents a mixed picture; a bullish signal comes from Argentina, where the Rosario Grains Exchange forecasts a reduced 2025/26 crop of 20 MMT compared to last year's 20.7 MMT. Conversely, potentially capping gains, the French wheat harvest is advancing rapidly—now 71% complete versus 36% last week—with crop conditions improving slightly to 69% rated good-to-excellent.
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strongly positive
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0.65
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