Novo Nordisk stock gets boost as BofA notes positive oral GLP1 data

Eli Lilly shares declined after its oral GLP-1 Orforglipron Phase III trial achieved 11% weight loss, falling short of its 13-14% target and investor expectations. This outcome contrasts favorably for Novo Nordisk's oral Semaglutide, which demonstrated 14% weight loss and is slated for a 2026 launch, prompting BofA Securities to label it an "underappreciated opportunity." Despite Novo Nordisk's competitive edge, BofA maintained its Neutral rating, citing ongoing considerations like supply constraints and pricing uncertainties, while noting that consensus 2026 sales estimates for oral Semaglutide are likely conservative despite an unclear short-term growth outlook.

Analysis

Eli Lilly's (LLY) stock is facing pressure following the release of Phase III trial data for its oral GLP-1 drug, Orforglipron, which demonstrated an approximate 11% weight loss. This result fell short of both the company's internal 13-14% target and prevailing investor expectations, triggering a negative sentiment shift for the stock. The data places competitor Novo Nordisk (NVO) in a more favorable position, as its oral Semaglutide showed a superior ~14% weight loss in trials and is slated for a 2026 launch. BofA Securities has labeled Novo's drug an "underappreciated opportunity" but maintained a Neutral rating on the stock with a DKK375.00 price target. This cautious stance is attributed to several unresolved variables, including potential supply constraints for oral Semaglutide, differing product profiles regarding water and food effects, and unclear pricing strategies from both firms. While BofA suggests that consensus fiscal year 2026 sales estimates of DKK3 billion for Novo's oral Semaglutide are likely conservative, it also notes that the company's short-term growth outlook remains unclear, creating a mixed but competitively advantageous picture for Novo Nordisk.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should reassess Eli Lilly's future market share in the oral weight-loss segment, as the disappointing Orforglipron trial data introduces a significant competitive headwind against Novo Nordisk.
• For Novo Nordisk, the favorable comparative data presents a potential upside catalyst, but upside is currently tempered by uncertainties around manufacturing supply, pricing, and the drug's specific usage profile, which warrant close monitoring ahead of its 2026 launch.
• The evolving efficacy data and forthcoming pricing strategies in the oral GLP-1 market will be critical determinants of value, suggesting a more competitive landscape than previously priced in for both companies.