Form 144 TYRA BIOSCIENCES For: 25 March

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Analysis

Regulatory tightening and a push toward on‑ and off‑ramp oversight is creating a durable shift in fee capture from permissionless rails to regulated intermediaries and derivatives venues. Over the next 3–12 months expect custody and clearing businesses (regulated exchanges, custodians, and CME‑style venues) to win incremental share of transaction and financing flows even if headline trading volumes fall; that amplifies revenue per dollar transacted and compresses revenue volatility for those firms relative to miners and issuance‑driven businesses.

A second‑order effect is an increase in basis and basis‑volatility across spot, exchange‑traded futures products, and OTC funding: as capital prefers regulated wrappers, futures open interest and ETF issuance will grow faster than on‑chain spot flows, raising roll yields and giving margin to futures issuers and clearinghouses. This mechanically increases correlations between those public equities/ETFs and crypto spot moves while reducing correlation between on‑chain utility metrics and listed securities.

Tail risks are concentrated and binary: aggressive enforcement or custody license rollbacks could trigger sudden deleveraging and liquidation cascades within days, while a gradual regulatory framework and clearer ETF approvals will reallocate flows over quarters. Reversal catalysts include fast, visible liquidity provision from large custodians (weeks) or explicit carveouts/clarifications by major regulators (3–12 months) that would tilt flows back to spot or on‑chain products; watch changes in fee schedules, custody capital requirements, and margin rules as early signals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long CME (CME) vs short a crypto native balance‑sheet play (MSTR) — horizon 3–12 months. Position: 1.0–1.5% NAV long CME, 0.5–1.0% NAV short MSTR to express regulatory‑flow capture vs price‑beta exposure. Risk/reward: target +15% on long CME with a 7–10% stop; short MSTR offers asymmetric payoff if capital flight or enforcement pressures hit BTC holders.
• Buy regulated ETF call spread (e.g., BITO or large-issuer BTC futures ETF) to play flow migration into regulated wrappers — horizon 1–6 months. Position: buy 3–6 month near‑ATM call / sell 3–6 month 25–35% OTM call to fund; if flows continue into ETFs this should be 2:1+ skewed R/R versus outright long ETF exposure.
• Hedge miners: buy 3‑month 25% OTM puts on MARA/RIOT sized to cover 50–70% of on‑book crypto exposure, or reduce miner net long exposure to zero. Rationale: miners are double‑sensitive to price and regulatory liquidity shocks; puts cap downside at known cost and become cheap insurance if enforcement risk spikes.
• Pair trade: Overweight regulated custody/exchange operator (COIN) if valuations gap on clarity; pair against a leverage‑heavy miner or microcap exchange. Timeframe 3–9 months. Entry on a 8–12% drawdown in COIN or on relative weakness in miner; target relative outperformance of 10–20%, stop at 8% absolute move.
• Liquidity event alert: if a major regulator announces expedited approval pathways or materially lower capital requirements for custodians, pivot to long spot ETF issuers and reduce futures‑basis trades within 1–4 weeks; conversely, if enforcement headlines escalate, increase defensive puts and widen cash buffers in crypto‑sensitive books immediately.