Mortgage rates tick higher but remain near 2025 lows

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed a modest uptick in mortgage costs as the average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% last week (6.6% a year ago) and the 15-year climbed to 5.54% from 5.49%; Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater noted the 30-year rate remains below the year-to-date average of 6.62%. The data follows the Federal Reserve's 25 basis-point rate cut to a 3.50%–3.75% range, but mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury (around 4.15%) rather than the Fed's policy rate. Market participants, including LoanDepot’s CIO Jeff DerGurahian, say upcoming labor and inflation reports will be decisive for whether mortgage rates can move materially lower into 2026.

Analysis

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed a modest weekly increase in rates: the average 30-year fixed rose to 6.22% from 6.19% last week (6.6% a year ago) while the 15-year fixed climbed to 5.54% from 5.49%. Sam Khater notes the 30-year rate remains below the year-to-date average of 6.62%, so current levels are still near 2025 lows despite the uptick.

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range after identical moves in September and October, but Freddie Mac and market commentators reiterate that mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield (around 4.15%) more closely than the Fed funds rate. The article highlights housing-market stress—home delistings are rising as sellers struggle on price—which underscores demand-side weakness even as nominal mortgage rates sit below the YTD average.

Market participants including LoanDepot’s CIO flag upcoming labor and inflation data as the decisive inputs for whether mortgage rates can move materially lower into 2026. That keeps the market in a holding pattern where small moves in the 10-year or macro prints can reprice mortgage spreads and housing-sensitive assets quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor the 10-year Treasury yield and weekly Freddie Mac PMMS alongside upcoming labor and inflation prints as the primary triggers for mortgage-rate direction
• Maintain a cautious duration stance in mortgage-backed securities and housing-sensitive equities and use short-term volatility to add exposure only if macro data confirms a sustained downtrend in yields
• For mortgage borrowers and housing investors, defer refinancing or aggressive homebuying until there is clear evidence in Treasury yields and labor/inflation data that rates are moving sustainably below current levels
• Track local delisting trends and seller pricing pressure as early indicators of housing demand deterioration that could affect homebuilders, REITs, and regional banking portfolios