Goldman's top economist expects Trump won't raise tariffs on other nations July 9

Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, predicts the Trump administration will not reimpose "reciprocal" tariffs on U.S. trading partners after the July 9 deadline. Hatzius stated that Goldman Sachs is not factoring in the second stage of these tariffs, which previously impacted markets in April, suggesting a belief that the current pause will continue.

Analysis

Goldman Sachs' chief economist, Jan Hatzius, projects that the Trump administration will not reimpose "reciprocal" tariffs on U.S. trading partners after the July 9 deadline. This forecast is notable as these tariffs previously "hammered markets in April," underscoring the potential negative market impact should they be reinstated. Reflecting this outlook, Goldman Sachs is reportedly "not building in the second stage of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs" into its economic models. The non-reimposition of these import taxes would likely remove a significant source of market uncertainty and headwind for global trade, aligning with the provided "moderately positive" overall sentiment (score 0.5) and "optimistic" tone. This development, if it materializes, could have a discernible positive effect on markets, as suggested by the market impact score of 0.6.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider that the avoidance of these tariffs could reduce near-term market volatility and support assets sensitive to international trade dynamics.
• Closely monitor official U.S. trade policy announcements as the July 9 deadline approaches, as any deviation from Goldman Sachs' expectation could reintroduce market uncertainty and potentially trigger adverse reactions.
• Sectors and companies that were particularly vulnerable to tariff concerns in April may experience improved sentiment and performance if the tariffs are indeed not reimposed.