2025 Worst-Performing S&P 500 Stocks Updated: FISV, TTD, DECK Lead Double-Digit Declines — YTD Losers List for Traders

As of November 29, 2025, the ten worst-performing S&P 500 stocks YTD are Fiserv (FISV) -70.1%, Trade Desk (TTD) -66.3%, Deckers (DECK) -56.7%, Gartner (IT) -52.0%, Lululemon (LULU) -51.8%, Molina Healthcare (MOH) -49.1%, Alexandria Real Estate (ARE) -45.0%, Chipotle (CMG) -42.8%, FactSet (FDS) -42.3% and Charter (CHTR) -41.6%. The declines point to sector-specific stress in fintech/payments, ad tech, consumer discretionary, healthcare and commercial real estate, and the write-up highlights potential cross-market flows into crypto (BTC/ETH and tokenized real-estate/DeFi tokens) as investors pursue hedges and yield in a risk-off environment.

Analysis

Market structure: Heavy losses in FISV, TTD, DECK and LULU signal demand compression in payments, ad-tech and discretionary retail. Beneficiaries are high-quality payment processors (PYPL, SQ) and large walled-garden ad platforms (GOOGL/META) that can reprice share; expect 3–6 month market-share shifts of 3–10% in DSP/payments channels. Risk-off flows will bid Treasuries (10Y down ~10–30bp intraday), push USD higher by 1–2% and lift gold/oil divergence (gold +3–7%, oil -5–10% on demand fear).

Risk assessment: Tail risks include accelerated regulatory action against interchange fees/DeFi (low-probability, high-impact) and covenant stress at mid-cap providers (FISV/TTD) leading to 10–20% incremental equity downside within 3 months. Near-term (days) expect IV spikes +30–60%; medium-term (weeks/months) earnings cuts and analyst downgrades; long-term (quarters) structural share loss if competitors undercut pricing. Hidden dependency: ad-tech revenue highly sensitive to CPI and retail spend—a 100bp move in CPI can shift ad budgets 5–8%.

Trade implications: Direct: initiate hedged short exposure to FISV and TTD via 3–6 month put spreads (target 20–35% downside, capped premium). Pair trades: long PYPL or ADYEY (2–3% notional) vs short FISV/TTD (2% notional) to capture share-shift. Options: buy 3-month protective puts on DECK/LULU (25% OTM) if same-store-sales guidance misses; sell short-dated covered calls on high-quality names to harvest elevated IV. Rotate +5–8% from discretionary/REITs into staples/utilities and select quality tech within 2 weeks.

Contrarian angles: Consensus assumes crypto will soak flows—historical parallels (2022) show BTC rallies are short-lived (10–20% within 30 days) and mean-revert; crypto hedge may be overstated. Several names (FACTSET, GARTNER) look oversold by 30–50% vs fundamentals; if insider buying or >20% drop in short interest occurs within 60 days, prepare to cover shorts. Unintended consequence: forced selling can create M&A/activist entry opportunities; watch for >10% abnormal volume+insider buys as reversal signal.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a hedged short position in FISV via a 6-month put spread (buy 1 ATM put, sell 1 put 20% lower) sized 1.5–2% of portfolio; target additional downside of 25–35%, max loss = net premium. Add if FISV trades below a new low within 30 trading days.
• Pair trade: go long PayPal (PYPL) 2–3% notional and short FISV 2% notional to capture payments market-share rotation; rebalance after earnings or if PYPL/ FISV relative performance diverges by >10% over 45 days.
• Buy 3-month 25% OTM protective puts on DECK and LULU sized 1% each if same-store-sales guidance misses by >200bps; use these as downside insurance while shifting 5–8% allocation from discretionary into staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) within 10 trading days.
• Establish a tactical 2% spot or 3-month futures long in ETH as a cross-asset hedge if S&P 500 falls another 5% within 7 trading days; set stop-loss at -8% and take-profit at +15–20% to capture likely short-term rotation described in correlation studies.
• Monitor 30–60 day catalysts: FISV/TTD earnings and Fed minutes. If either company issues negative guidance (revenue growth miss >300bps) or Fed signals renewed tightening, increase short exposures by 50% and widen hedges across sector ETFs (XLC, XLY).