Live cattle futures slid roughly $4.90–$5.30 across most contracts Wednesday while feeder cattle lost about $6.50–$7 in nearby months (CME Feeder Cattle Index down $2.43 to $339.46), pressured by thin cash trade (few northern sales at $220, bids $218 north/$224 south) and a Fed Cattle Exchange auction that showed no sales on 1,576 head offered. Fundamental data weighed on sentiment: August beef exports fell to 190.7 million lbs (the weakest month since June 2020 and the weakest August since 2015), a Reuters survey sees October placements down 7.9% y/y and marketings down 7.6%, and November 1 on-feed is expected 2.2% below last year; USDA boxed beef was mixed (Choice $372.26, Select $353.06, Chc/Sel spread $19.20) and federally inspected slaughter was estimated at 121,000 head Tuesday. Together, weak export demand and limited cash trading are driving near-term price pressure in the cattle complex, while lower placements/on-feed suggest potential tightening of supplies down the road, leaving near-term direction dependent on upcoming placement and export data.
Live cattle futures weakened sharply Wednesday, sliding roughly $4.90–$5.30 across most contracts while nearby feeder cattle lost about $6.50–$7 (Nov feeder up $0.05). The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $2.43 to $339.46 on November 17, cash trade was thin with a few northern sales at $220 and bids reported at $218 north/$224 south, and the Fed Cattle Exchange online auction posted no sales on 1,576 head offered (bids $220–221 live, $340 dressed). Fundamentals show demand headwinds: August beef exports were 190.7 million lbs, the weakest month since June 2020 and the weakest August since 2015, while a Reuters survey expects October placements down 7.9% y/y, marketings down 7.6%, and November 1 on-feed 2.2% below last year. USDA boxed beef was mixed (Choice $372.26, Select $353.06, Chc/Sel spread $19.20) and federally inspected slaughter was estimated at 121,000 head for Tuesday, with the weekly total 237,000 head (8,000 above last week but 10,273 below the same week last year). Near-term price pressure is being driven by weak export demand and very limited cash trade liquidity, which is reflected in the futures declines and no-result auction. Conversely, the anticipated reduction in placements and lower on-feed suggest a potential medium-term supply tightening that would support prices if export demand stabilizes; the path of upcoming placement, on-feed and export data is therefore the primary determinant of direction over the next 1–3 months.
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moderately negative
Sentiment Score
-0.45
Ticker Sentiment
