Nvidia Earnings Live: AI Chip Giant's Results Blow Past Wall Street Expectations, Sending Stock Sharply Higher; CEO Huang Cites "Off the Charts" Sales

Nvidia blew past expectations in fiscal Q3 with adjusted EPS of $1.30 versus $1.26 expected and revenue of $57.0 billion (+62% YoY), driven by a record $51.2 billion in data‑center sales, and guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $65 billion (±2%) with gross margins near 75%. Management defended its investments in customers and so‑called circular deals, said Blackwell demand is off the charts, reiterated Rubin is on track for 2026 and suggested combined Blackwell/Rubin revenue could exceed its prior $500 billion target, sending NVDA up ~5% after hours and lifting chip peers. The beat and aggressive guidance could re‑energize the AI trade and broader market given Nvidia's outsized S&P weighting, but scrutiny of circular partnerships, China export restrictions and hyperscaler competition leave material downside risk and elevated near‑term volatility.

Analysis

Nvidia reported fiscal Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.30 versus $1.26 expected and revenue of $57.0 billion, up 62% year-over-year and above the $55.4 billion consensus; shares rose about 5% in after-hours trading after a roughly 3% regular-session gain. Data center revenue reached a record $51.2 billion (up 66% YoY and 25% sequentially), gaming revenue was $4.27 billion, and management raised fiscal Q4 revenue guidance to $65 billion (+/-2%), ahead of the $62.38 billion analyst consensus.

Management signaled continued strength in demand—CEO Jensen Huang said Blackwell sales are "off the charts" and CFO Colette Kress suggested combined Blackwell/Rubin revenue could exceed the prior $500 billion target—with Rubin still on track for a 2026 rollout; company gross margins were guided near 75% (GAAP Q3 73.4%). Nvidia’s outsized market-cap (~$4.5 trillion) and ~8% S&P weighting mean its beat-and-raise has broad market leverage and helped lift peers and cloud partners in extended trading.

Key risks highlighted include investor concern over "circular" investments in customers (OpenAI, Anthropic, CoreWeave), ongoing U.S. export limits to China, and competitive efforts from hyperscalers; options imply ~7% NVDA swings and S&P moves near 2%, signaling elevated near-term volatility despite strong fundamentals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider adding to NVDA on the beat-and-raise and $65bn Q4 guide, but size new positions prudently given options-implied ~7% near-term swing and elevated market volatility
• Increase selective exposure to Nvidia suppliers and cloud partners that jumped in after-hours (Micron, Super Micro, Arm, Broadcom) on positive signal, while monitoring individual fundamentals and lower per-ticker sentiment
• Require clearer disclosures on the economics of "circular" customer investments and progress on China export licenses before materially increasing conviction, because these are material downside catalysts
• If you hold broad-market index exposure, hedge tail risk tied to Nvidia's index weight (protective puts or beta reduction) given its potential to move the S&P meaningfully