Brazil's Lula grows more unpopular in Brazil as approval dips to 28%, Datafolha poll shows

A recent Datafolha poll indicates Brazilian President Lula da Silva's approval rating decreased slightly to 28% in June from 29% in April, while his disapproval rate rose to 40% from 38% during the same period. While representing a negative trend, both figures remain improved from February, when Lula's approval hit a low of 24% and disapproval peaked at 41%.

Analysis

A Datafolha poll conducted in June indicates a marginal shift in Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's public standing, with his government's approval rating decreasing to 28% from 29% in April, while the disapproval rate rose to 40% from 38% over the same period. The proportion of respondents viewing the government's performance as average also slightly declined to 31% from 32%. Despite this recent negative movement, these figures represent an improvement from February's levels, when approval reached a record low of 24% and disapproval peaked at 41% during Lula's three presidential terms. The poll surveyed 2,004 eligible voters between June 10-11 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, suggesting the observed changes are minimal and potentially within statistical noise. The associated general sentiment score of -0.3 reflects a mildly negative perception, though the market impact score of 0.1 is low, indicating limited immediate market reaction to these nuanced political shifts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should note the slight dip in President Lula's approval and rise in disapproval, but recognize these changes are marginal and within the poll's margin of error, suggesting continued monitoring rather than immediate portfolio adjustments.
• While the current figures remain better than February's lows, a sustained negative trend in subsequent polls could elevate political risk perception and warrants close attention for potential impacts on Brazilian asset valuations.
• Given the low market impact score associated with this poll, current exposure to Brazilian markets may be maintained, but heightened vigilance is advised for further shifts in domestic political sentiment.