Why I Stopped Reading 10-Year Rolling Return Charts

The S&P 500 has rebounded to near-record highs, challenging bearish signals from 10-year rolling return and P/E regression charts. The article argues that these correlations are statistically flawed because the overlapping return windows are not independent, weakening their predictive value. The piece is primarily an analytical critique of market-timing indicators rather than a direct market catalyst.

Analysis

The S&P 500 has rebounded to near-record highs, challenging bearish signals from 10-year rolling return and P/E regression charts. The article argues that these correlations are statistically flawed because the overlapping return windows are not independent, weakening their predictive value. The piece is primarily an analytical critique of market-timing indicators rather than a direct market catalyst.