Global gains in tuberculosis response endangered by funding challenges

The WHO Global Tuberculosis Report 2025 highlights significant progress in TB diagnosis and treatment, with global illness rates declining by 2% and deaths by 3% between 2023-2024, alongside advancements in testing and therapy. However, the report identifies a critical funding shortfall, with only $5.9 billion available in 2024 for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, a mere quarter of the $22 billion annual target for 2027. This substantial funding gap, exacerbated by anticipated cuts in international donor contributions from 2025, poses a significant risk, potentially leading to 2 million additional deaths and 10 million new TB cases by 2035, underscoring the urgent need for increased investment and political commitment to avoid severe public health and economic repercussions.

Analysis

The WHO Global Tuberculosis Report 2025 presents a mixed outlook, highlighting measurable progress in the fight against TB while underscoring critical challenges. Global TB illness rates declined by nearly 2% and deaths by 3% between 2023 and 2024, signaling a recovery in essential health services post-COVID disruptions, with 8.3 million people newly diagnosed and treated in 2024 and rapid testing coverage increasing to 54%.

However, a severe funding gap poses a significant threat to sustained progress. Only US$5.9 billion was available in 2024 for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, representing just over a quarter of the US$22 billion annual target for 2027. Anticipated cuts to international donor funding from 2025 could exacerbate this shortfall, with modeling studies warning of up to 2 million additional deaths and 10 million new TB cases by 2035.

Despite lagging research funding, significant innovation is evident, with 63 diagnostic tests, 29 drugs, and 18 vaccine candidates (including 6 in Phase 3) currently in development. The report also emphasizes the uneven social protection coverage and persistent risk factors like undernutrition and poverty, necessitating coordinated multisectoral action and sustained political commitment to address the epidemic's structural determinants.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor fiscal policy and budget allocations in key emerging markets, as increased domestic investment or donor cuts could significantly impact public health infrastructure and related healthcare sectors.
• Evaluate pharmaceutical and biotech companies with strong pipelines in infectious diseases, particularly those developing advanced diagnostics, treatments, or vaccines for TB, as sustained innovation could eventually attract increased funding.
• Consider the long-term implications of public health funding shortfalls on human capital and economic stability in high-burden countries, which could influence sovereign risk and investment attractiveness in those regions.