2 Space Stocks to Buy Before the SpaceX IPO on June 12

The article highlights a potential $2 trillion space economy by 2040 and argues that AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines are attractive space stocks ahead of SpaceX's anticipated IPO. AST is targeting 45 satellites by year-end, despite a recent Blue Origin launch setback, and has $30 million in SDA contract exposure. Intuitive Machines reported Q1 revenue of $186.7 million, up 3x year over year, and ended with a backlog above $1.1 billion, including $429 million of new government contracts and a $180 million NASA CLPS award.

Analysis

The market is likely underpricing how much of the current space enthusiasm is really a procurement story, not a consumer story. ASTS and LUNR are both translating geopolitical demand into funded backlog, but their risk profiles diverge sharply: ASTS is a capacity-constrained network build with binary launch execution, while LUNR looks more like a government services compounder with clearer revenue visibility and a faster conversion of contract wins into booked sales.

The key second-order effect is launch-provider concentration. Any failure at one launch partner now has amplified impact because these companies are effectively routing growth through a small number of rockets and narrow launch windows. That creates a hidden beneficiary set: alternate launch infrastructure, range services, and satellite component suppliers with proven flight heritage may gain bargaining power as customers diversify away from single-vendor dependence.

Consensus is probably too optimistic on ASTS near-term and too conservative on LUNR’s backlog quality. ASTS can re-rate hard if it clears the next 2-3 launch milestones over the coming 1-2 months, but the asymmetry is still dominated by execution risk until the deployment cadence is demonstrated repeatedly. LUNR, by contrast, has a better chance to surprise on revenue conversion over the next 2-3 quarters because the backlog is already funded and tied to defense priorities that are less sensitive to general market volatility.

The broader basket is also likely to see a valuation bifurcation after the SpaceX IPO attention spike. High-conviction commercial infrastructure names with visible contracts should outperform speculative “category” exposure, while pure narrative names may fade once the IPO window passes and capital rotates back to profitability and launch reliability.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long LUNR vs short ASTS for the next 1-3 months: prefer the company with funded backlog and lower binary launch dependence; target a 15-25% relative spread if ASTS misses cadence or slips on launch timing.
• Add ASTS only on post-launch confirmation, not ahead of it: use a staged entry after the next 3-satellite deployment and only if management reaffirms 2026 cadence; upside is 30%+ on successful execution, but downside to a failed launch cycle is severe.
• Buy LUNR on pullbacks over the next 2 quarters: backlog conversion and defense contract visibility support a lower-risk 12-month setup; risk/reward skews favorably if revenue keeps tracking backlog burn and margin expansion.
• Use a small thematic basket long ASTS/LUNR and short a broad space-speculation proxy if available: the goal is to isolate contract-backed names from momentum-chasing names that will likely compress after the IPO halo fades.
• Watch launch-provider stocks and suppliers for second-order upside: any evidence of multi-provider diversification should benefit launch services and flight-proven component vendors before it fully shows up in the headline space stocks.