‘Wicked: For Good’ Aims for Biggest Opening of 2025 With $150 Million-Plus Debut

Universal’s Wicked: For Good is forecast to open at $150–180 million from roughly 4,000 North American theaters this weekend (Universal estimates a more conservative $125M+), which at the high end would be 2024’s biggest launch and easily top the first film’s $112.5M debut; the two-part musical was produced for about $300M excluding marketing and the franchise’s prior $756M global haul boosts expectations for strong repeat business. The release should energize a Thanksgiving box office recovery after a weak October and overshadow modest counter-programming—Sony’s Sisu: Road to Revenge (~$3M target) and Searchlight’s Rental Family (low single digits)—though analysts note the sequel’s darker tone and fewer standout songs could limit its staying power.

Analysis

Universal’s Wicked: For Good is forecast to open to $150–180 million from roughly 4,000 North American theaters this weekend, while Universal itself offers a more conservative estimate of $125 million or more; a high‑end result would be 2024’s largest launch, surpassing A Minecraft Movie ($162 million) and Lilo & Stitch ($146 million) and eclipsing the first film’s $112.5 million debut. The two‑part production cost is reported at about $300 million excluding marketing, and the franchise’s prior $756 million global haul provides a strong brand and soundtrack tailwind likely to drive front‑loaded demand and repeat business.

Analysts flag durability risk: the second installment is described as darker with fewer standout songs, which could compress box‑office legs and reduce long‑run hold despite a powerful opening window. Counter‑programming appears unlikely to dent the debut—Sony’s Sisu: Road to Revenge is targeting about $3 million from 2,100 venues and Searchlight’s Rental Family the low single digits from ~1,900 locations—so near‑term exhibitor upside is concentrated in Wicked’s performance.

Comscore’s framing and comparisons to last year’s $433 million Thanksgiving frame imply this release materially improves a weak October for theaters, but ultimate profitability for Universal and exhibitors will hinge on reported weekend receipts, subsequent weekly drops and the size of undisclosed marketing spending.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a modest, short‑duration overweight to U.S. theatrical exhibitors and Universal‑exposed revenue ahead of opening, with a disciplined exit if weekend grosses land meaningfully below the $150–180 million range
• Use reported weekend gross, Monday/Tuesday drops and second‑weekend hold as primary triggers to reassess positions and determine whether the box‑office is front‑loaded or demonstrating staying power
• Avoid allocating incremental capital to exposure tied to Sony’s Sisu or Searchlight’s Rental Family given their projected low single‑digit openings, which are unlikely to materially influence exhibitor revenues
• Monitor disclosed marketing outlays and week‑to‑week retention closely because the ~$300 million production cost (ex‑marketing) makes studio and exhibitor economics sensitive to box‑office longevity; consider hedges if early retention is weak