Interim report January – March 2026

First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 23% to 904.8 MSEK from 736.0 MSEK, while adjusted EBITA improved to 19.8 MSEK from 12.2 MSEK and EBITA increased to 14.5 MSEK from 7.7 MSEK. The company highlighted a strong contract base and unchanged strategy, but adjusted operating cash flow fell sharply to -35.4 MSEK from 86.2 MSEK. Overall tone is constructive on profitability and execution, though cash generation weakened.

Analysis

The key signal here is not the top-line growth; it is the mismatch between stronger revenue conversion and weaker operating cash flow. That usually means working capital is pulling forward, receivables are building, or project mix is front-loaded into delivery-heavy contracts that look good on EBITA but lag on cash. In the near term, that can keep the equity supported on headline profitability while leaving the balance sheet more exposed than consensus expects, especially if the market is still underwriting the business on cash generation rather than earnings quality.

The mention of a strong contract base and a successful tender season matters most as a forward-ordering signal: it reduces near-term revenue risk but may also compress pricing power if the company had to win share aggressively. In sectors with fragmented competition, a solid backlog can trigger a second-order response from peers who are still under-earning on utilization and may choose to defend volume with lower bids, setting up margin pressure 2-3 quarters out. If this is an infrastructure/service-heavy model, the incremental winner is likely upstream suppliers with fixed-price exposure and lower bargaining power, while pure-play competitors face a more difficult trade-off between growth and profitability.

The contrarian read is that the market may be over-rewarding visibility and underpricing cash conversion risk. A quarter like this often leads to a short-lived upgrade cycle, but if operating cash flow remains weak into the next reporting period, the multiple can de-rate quickly because earnings quality becomes the focal point rather than backlog size. The best catalyst to fade the optimism would be any sign that contract wins were bought with lower margins or higher working-capital intensity; the best catalyst to extend it would be a clean sequential improvement in cash conversion over the next 1-2 quarters.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If there is a liquid local listing, fade the strength into the print with a tactical short or put spread for the next 4-8 weeks: the setup favors a headline-pop followed by multiple compression if cash flow does not normalize.
• For longs, wait for the next quarter and require evidence of cash conversion improvement before adding; use a 1-2 quarter horizon and size only if operating cash flow turns positive again.
• Relative-value idea: long the company versus a peer with weaker backlog but stronger cash generation, preferring the name with better free-cash-flow conversion over the next 6 months.
• If the stock rallies sharply on backlog optimism, monetize via covered calls or call spreads rather than outright longs; risk/reward is asymmetric if pricing discipline was the price of the tender win.