Earnings Preview: Genesco (GCO) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline

Genesco (GCO) is expected to report a year-over-year earnings decline despite a projected 1.4% increase in revenue to $463.91 million for the quarter ending April 2025; the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down 7.74% over the last 30 days to a loss of $2.14 per share. With a negative Earnings ESP of -2.80% and a Zacks Rank of #2, the likelihood of Genesco beating EPS estimates is uncertain, suggesting investors should consider other factors beyond the earnings release on June 4.

Analysis

Genesco (GCO) faces a challenging outlook for its upcoming Q1 2025 earnings report, with consensus estimates pointing to a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an anticipated 1.4% increase in revenues to $463.91 million. The market expects a quarterly loss of $2.14 per share, representing a 1.9% negative change from the prior year. Notably, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downwards by 7.74% over the last 30 days, indicating a growing bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's near-term profitability. Genesco's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is -2.80%, as the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate; this negative ESP, according to Zacks methodology, makes it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat, despite the stock currently holding a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). While the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times in the last four quarters, it reported a -1.51% earnings surprise miss in the most recent quarter. The combination of these factors suggests Genesco is not a compelling candidate for an earnings beat in its report expected on June 4, and management's discussion on business conditions will be pivotal for future expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should approach Genesco's upcoming earnings release with caution, factoring in the expected earnings decline and the recent significant downward revisions to EPS estimates by analysts.
• Given the negative Earnings ESP of -2.80% paired with a Zacks Rank #2, the probability of an earnings beat is uncertain; therefore, pay close attention to management's commentary on business conditions and forward guidance during the earnings call, as this will likely be more indicative of future stock performance than a marginal beat or miss.
• Considering the mixed earnings surprise history, including a recent miss, and the current lack of strong indicators for an earnings beat, investors should carefully evaluate the actual results against expectations and be prepared for potential stock price volatility following the June 4 report.