These three stocks have a strong chance of topping Wall Street estimates, says FBB's Mike Bailey

FBB Capital Partners' Mike Bailey anticipates upside earnings surprises from Alphabet, Danaher, and Progressive in their upcoming reports. Alphabet is expected to benefit from strong cloud and YouTube performance and margin improvements, while Danaher is poised for a rebound as past operational issues resolve. Progressive's low earnings estimates set a favorable bar, potentially leading to substantial growth.

Analysis

FBB Capital Partners has identified Alphabet (GOOGL), Danaher (DHR), and Progressive (PGR) as companies poised for potential upside earnings surprises. Despite a 5% year-to-date pullback, Alphabet's outlook is supported by expected strength in its Cloud and YouTube segments, as well as margin improvements, which could offset concerns around AI competition impacting its core search business. The key metric for GOOGL will be paid clicks, though its historical record of beating estimates provides a strong precedent. Danaher, which has underperformed with an 11% decline in 2025, is viewed as a turnaround story. The analyst suggests that resolving past issues, including difficult post-COVID comparisons and acquisition-related missteps, is creating a cleaner operational environment conducive to an earnings beat. For Progressive, the investment thesis is centered on low Wall Street expectations. Despite strong monthly performance, analyst estimates have not been aggressively raised, creating a low bar for the company to surpass and potentially deliver quarter-over-quarter earnings growth as high as 60-70%.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors could consider tactical positions in GOOGL, DHR, and PGR ahead of their respective earnings reports, given the analyst's expectation of upside surprises for all three.
• For Alphabet, focus should be on the performance of paid clicks and management's commentary on AI competition, as these will be critical determinants of sentiment, potentially outweighing the strength in Cloud and YouTube.
• Given Danaher's significant stock underperformance year-to-date, its upcoming report should be scrutinized for confirmation that operational headwinds are subsiding, which could signal a key inflection point for the stock.
• The setup for Progressive suggests a high probability of an earnings beat against conservative estimates, but investors should weigh the potential for a 60-70% earnings growth surprise against the stock's modest year-to-date gains.