'Maybe US wants to attack anyway': Iranian foreign minister on Trump's 2-week window; says Tehran can't trust Washington anymore

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated the U.S. may be using negotiations as a cover to attack Iran, accusing Washington of "betraying" diplomacy following Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear targets. Araghchi expressed willingness to continue negotiations contingent on Israel halting aerial attacks, while also referencing President Trump's awareness of, and reported veto of a plan to kill Ayatollah Khameini. The comments come amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions and uncertainty surrounding the U.S.'s approach to resolving the conflict diplomatically.

Analysis

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, significantly increasing event risk for markets. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, trust in diplomatic channels has been severely eroded, with Iran accusing the U.S. of potentially using negotiations as a pretext for a military attack. This sentiment follows recent Israeli pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear targets, which occurred just two days before a scheduled round of U.S.-Iran talks. While the U.S. administration denied involvement, President Trump's reported awareness of the Israeli plan introduces strategic ambiguity. Iran has now conditioned further negotiations on a complete halt to Israeli aerial attacks, a significant precondition that makes a near-term diplomatic resolution unlikely. The situation is further intensified by a stated two-week window for President Trump to decide his next course of action, elevating the risk of a miscalculation or a deliberate military escalation with direct implications for regional stability and global energy markets.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should review portfolio exposure to energy price volatility, as a military conflict could cause a significant spike in crude oil prices, potentially benefiting energy producers while hurting energy-intensive industries.
• Consider increasing allocations to safe-haven assets, such as gold or U.S. Treasuries, to hedge against a potential broad-based risk-off event triggered by escalating hostilities.
• Closely monitor political rhetoric and military posturing from the U.S., Iran, and Israel over the immediate term, as any developments within the reported two-week decision window will be a primary catalyst for market volatility.