What is Donald Trump's current approval rating? See recent polls

Recent polls show President Trump’s approval rating clustered between the mid-30s and mid-40s: RealClear average 45.9% (Jan. 5–15), Gallup 36%, Reuters/Ipsos 41% favorable/58% unfavorable, New York Times daily avg 42%/55% and other trackers ranging from 35%–45% approval and 53%–62% disapproval. Ratings softened amid nationwide protests after fatal shootings and clashes with federal agents, Trump’s threat to invoke the Insurrection Act, a high-profile meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado following a reported capture of Nicolás Maduro, and plans to pardon Puerto Rico’s former governor — developments that elevate political risk and could increase volatility around policy and election-driven market moves.

Analysis

Market structure: Near-term winners include defense primes (Lockheed LMT, Raytheon RTX, Northrop NOC) and surveillance/security vendors as federal deployments and border-security rhetoric raise contract probability — expect 5–15% upside in awarded-contract scenarios within 6–12 months. Losers are local tourism/leisure and small-cap consumer discretionary exposed to demonstrations and reputational risk in hot spots; expect 3–8% underperformance in soft-demand months if unrest persists. Cross-asset: safe-haven flows should modestly bid 2–10 bps in 2–10y Treasuries and lift DXY and gold on spikes; oil could see 2–4% knee-jerk moves on geopolitical escalation headlines.

Risk assessment: Tail risk (5–10% probability) includes large-scale civil unrest or federal troop deployment under the Insurrection Act that sparks multi-week market volatility (>VIX +40%) and equity drawdowns >10%. Time horizons: immediate (days) = headline-driven knee-jerk; short-term (weeks) = volatility & sector rotation; long-term (quarters) = reallocation into defense, security, media. Hidden dependency: increased surveillance procurement can be offset by procurement delays or civil-rights litigation, compressing margins. Catalysts: additional shootings, formal invocation of Insurrection Act, or major legal rulings in 30–90 days.

Trade implications: Tactical: overweight LMT/RTX (6–12 months) and buy short-dated VIX call spreads (30–60 day) as insurance around protests; short regional leisure names (small-cap casinos, local hospitality) for 1–3 months. Pair trades: long NYT (NYT) vs short XLY (consumer discretionary ETF) for 3 months to capture higher engagement/ad revenues vs consumer softness. Entry: initiate within 1–2 weeks; exit on 15–20% realized move or after 3 months.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates procurement lead times — defense revenue upside may be backloaded into H2; markets may be underpricing persistent political volatility, making hedges cheap. Conversely, unrest could be localized and transitory; an overbought defense pop could mean mean-reversion risk of 10% if no contracts materialize. Historical parallels: short-term market selloffs around civil unrest (1992 L.A., 2020 protests) recovered in 3–6 months; don’t assume permanent sector rotation without confirmed spending increases.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio position long in defense primes: 60% LMT, 40% RTX. Horizon 6–12 months; take profit at +18% and cut losses at -10%. Rationale: higher probability of targeted federal spending and near-term contract announcements.
• Allocate 1–1.5% notional to short-dated volatility hedges: buy 30–60 day VIX call spreads (e.g., buy 30/40 strikes) to protect against headline-driven VIX spikes; roll or unwind after 60 days or if VIX falls below 12.
• Implement a 1–1.5% pair trade: long NYT (NYT) equal-weighted vs short XLY (consumer discretionary ETF) for 3 months. Rationale: engagement/ad revenue upside for news outlets vs consumer demand pressure from risk-off; unwind on relative move >12% or after 90 days.
• Increase short-term Treasury exposure (IEF or TLT) by 2–3% of portfolio as a tactical flight-to-quality hedge for 1–3 months; sell if 10y yield rises >30 bps or risk sentiment normalizes.