Nucor expects Q2 earnings of $2.55-$2.65 per share

Nucor (NUE) anticipates Q2 2025 earnings between $2.55 and $2.65 per diluted share, a substantial increase from Q1's $0.67, driven by higher average selling prices in its steel mills segment and improved performance across all operating segments. The company repurchased 1.8 million shares in Q2 at an average price of $111.89 and has returned $755 million to stockholders year-to-date through buybacks and dividends, marking 53 years of consecutive dividend payments and 15 years of increases. BMO Capital Markets recently upgraded Nucor's stock to Outperform with a $145 price target, while ongoing US-Mexico tariff negotiations on steel imports could impact the company.

Analysis

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) has issued strong earnings guidance for its second quarter of 2025, anticipating diluted earnings per share (EPS) to be between $2.55 and $2.65. This represents a substantial improvement from the $0.67 per diluted share reported in the first quarter of 2025 and closely aligns with the $2.68 EPS from the same period in 2024. The projected earnings growth is attributed to improved performance across all three operating segments, with the steel mills segment expected to see the largest improvement due to higher average selling prices at sheet and plate mills. The steel products segment is anticipated to benefit from stable pricing, higher volumes, and lower average costs per ton, while the raw materials segment is also projected for better performance. Supporting this outlook, InvestingPro data indicates three analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for Nucor, and the company maintains a "Good" overall financial health score. Nucor continues its robust capital return program, having repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares in the second quarter at an average price of $111.89 per share, and returned approximately $755 million to stockholders year-to-date through share repurchases and dividend payments. The company boasts a strong track record of maintaining dividend payments for 53 consecutive years and increasing them for 15 consecutive years. This guidance follows Nucor's first-quarter 2025 results, where it reported adjusted EPS of $0.77, narrowly missing the $0.79 forecast, but exceeded revenue expectations by posting $7.83 billion against a $7.23 billion forecast, supported by a 43% increase in pre-tax earnings from its Steel Mills segment. Further positive sentiment is reflected in BMO Capital Markets' recent upgrade of Nucor's stock to Outperform with a $145 price target. However, investors should note the ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Mexico regarding a potential deal to ease tariffs on Mexican steel imports, which could impact domestic steel producers like Nucor.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider Nucor's significantly improved Q2 2025 earnings guidance and consistent capital return program, including substantial share repurchases and a long history of dividend growth, as positive indicators for the stock.
• It is advisable to closely monitor the full Q2 2025 earnings release, scheduled for after market close on Monday, July 28, 2025, and the subsequent conference call, to confirm the realization of guided improvements and gain further insight into segmental performance and outlook.
• The ongoing US-Mexico steel tariff negotiations warrant careful observation due to their potential impact on Nucor's domestic market pricing and profitability; additionally, consider that InvestingPro's AI analysis did not identify NUE as a top undervalued stock despite positive fundamental signals.