Wall Street sentiment on Boeing is improving as 737 MAX production increases

Analyst sentiment on Boeing has significantly improved in 2025, with 69% now rating the stock buy or overweight, up from 52% at the end of 2024, driven by increased 737 MAX production and a large order from Qatar Airways. Several firms, including JPMorgan and Wolfe Research, have raised price targets, citing improved production pace and a substantial backlog of ~$500 billion; however, JPMorgan's price target of $200 suggests a potential 6% downside, while Bernstein's target implies a 17% upside.

Analysis

Wall Street sentiment towards Boeing (BA) has markedly improved in 2025, with 69% of analysts surveyed by FactSet now rating the shares as buy or overweight, a significant increase from 52% at the end of 2024. This shift is reflected in the stock's performance, which has gained nearly 20% year-to-date in 2025, substantially outpacing the S&P 500's 1.5% rise. Key drivers for this renewed optimism, cited by firms like JPMorgan, Wolfe Research, and Bernstein, include the improved production pace of the 737 MAX and a record-breaking order from Qatar Airways. Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned highlights Boeing's progress towards stabilizing 737 MAX monthly production, aiming for around 38 units, with CEO Kelly Ortberg suggesting a potential for 42 units per month by year-end. Furthermore, Boeing resumed plane deliveries to China in June, a positive development following trade-related pauses. Wolfe Research's Myles Walton views the Qatar order as a confidence booster for sustained production improvements and future cash flow, while JPMorgan's Seth Seifman notes that balance sheet concerns are addressed for now, emphasizing the need for improved execution on 737 and 787 production and advancing the 777X program, supported by a substantial backlog of approximately $500 billion. Despite the overall positive sentiment, analyst price targets present a mixed outlook: consensus targets suggest about 2% upside from Wednesday's close of $211.98, Bernstein's $249 target implies 17% upside, Wolfe Research's $230 target indicates about 9% upside, whereas JPMorgan's $200 target suggests a potential 6% downside. This recovery narrative follows a challenging period for Boeing, marked by the 737 MAX groundings and other operational setbacks.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should recognize the strengthening analyst conviction and positive stock momentum driven by improving 737 MAX production rates and significant new orders, such as the one from Qatar Airways.
• Monitor Boeing's execution on ramping up 737 MAX production towards the stated goal of 38-42 planes per month by year-end and progress on the 777X program, as these are critical catalysts for realizing further upside.
• Consider the divergence in analyst price targets, ranging from potential double-digit upside to a modest downside, implying that while fundamentals are improving, valuation sensitivity and execution risk remain pertinent factors.
• Given the substantial ~$500 billion backlog and the resumption of deliveries to China, investors might find opportunities, but should weigh these against the company's historical execution challenges and the 'momentum-type' nature of the stock which may imply volatility.