Dow Jones Today: Stock Futures Tick Higher Ahead of Nvidia Earnings; Dow, S&P 500 Look to End 4-Session Skids

U.S. equity futures ticked up ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated quarterly report after the close, with the S&P and Dow coming off multi-day declines and a delayed September jobs report adding to near-term uncertainty; Nvidia shares are down over 12% from late-October highs and its results are seen as a potential catalyst for the broader AI trade. Momentum in the stock has been further complicated by notable portfolio moves — Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro sold its entire 537,742-share stake (roughly $100m at end-September), SoftBank liquidated about $5.8bn of NVDA in October to fund other AI investments, and Scion Asset Management added a $186m short — fueling debate over whether current AI valuations are sustainable. On the corporate front, Lowe’s topped and raised guidance, Home Depot disappointed, Target missed and cut its profit outlook, TJX beat and raised FY26 guidance, Walmart reports Thursday; macro and market signals included Bitcoin near $91,400, the 10-year Treasury at ~4.12%, the dollar slightly stronger, WTI around $59.35/bbl and gold gaining about 1%.

Analysis

U.S. equity futures were modestly higher ahead of Nvidia's (NVDA) quarterly report, with Nasdaq futures up 0.4%, S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Dow futures up 0.1%; Nvidia shares have fallen nearly 5% this week and more than 12% from the Oct. 29 closing high, though were up 1.7% in premarket trading, making tomorrow's print a likely market-moving catalyst for the AI trade. Market positioning ahead of the release is notable: Thiel Macro disclosed the sale of 537,742 NVDA shares (roughly $100m at end-September), SoftBank liquidated about $5.8bn of NVDA in October to fund other AI bets, and Scion Asset Management held $186m in NVDA shorts, increasing downside risk if guidance disappoints. Retail earnings were mixed and regionally significant: Lowe's jumped ~6% after a Q3 profit beat and raised full-year sales projection while Home Depot slid ~6% on a profit miss and cut outlook; Target missed and lowered FY profit, TJX beat and lifted FY26 guidance, and Walmart is set to report Thursday. Macro and sentiment signals add uncertainty — the delayed September jobs report, 10-year yield around 4.12%, Bitcoin ~ $91,400, WTI at $59.35/bbl and gold up ~1% — any stronger-than-expected jobs print could reprice rates and tech multiples quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Treat Nvidia earnings as a binary catalyst and avoid adding large unhedged long exposure pre-earnings; consider short-dated options collars or reduced position sizes to limit downside from a negative surprise
• Monitor large holder activity (Thiel, SoftBank) and short interest (Scion) as sentiment signals; if liquidation continues, be prepared to trim conviction in crowded AI names and redeploy into fundamentals-driven opportunities
• Favor selective retail names with confirmed upside — consider increasing exposure to Lowe's and TJX on upgraded guidance while trimming or hedging positions in Home Depot and Target until post-report clarity is available
• Watch the delayed September jobs report and 10-year yield closely; a hotter print that lifts yields would pressure high-multiple tech names, so use interest-rate sensitive hedges or reduce duration risk if your portfolio is AI/tech concentrated