Achille Mbembe, philosopher: 'We will see more coups d'état in Africa'

Since 2020 Africa has seen a resurgence of military takeovers — 14 coups in total — with Sahel states such as Guinea, Gabon and Sudan under military control and three further coups or attempts in a three‑month span in Madagascar, Guinea‑Bissau and a failed seizure in Benin on Dec. 7. Political scientist Achille Mbembe, director of the Foundation for Innovation in Democracy, frames the wave not as a simple crisis of democracy but as a deeper crisis of “administrative multipartyism” established in the early 2000s, arguing most countries never met basic rule‑of‑law standards; his diagnosis points to structural governance failures that increase political and sovereign risk across the continent.

Analysis

Since 2020 the continent has recorded 14 coups d'état, with three additional events since September and three more coups or attempts within a recent three‑month span: Madagascar, Guinea‑Bissau and a failed military seizure in Benin on Dec. 7; Sahel countries including Guinea, Gabon and Sudan are already under military control. Political scientist Achille Mbembe characterizes this pattern not primarily as a crisis of democracy but as a crisis of “administrative multipartyism,” arguing most states never achieved basic rule‑of‑law standards, which frames these incidents as structural governance failures rather than isolated disruptions.

Market signals register this development as moderately negative (sentiment score -0.5) with a market impact score of 0.35, indicating investor pessimism with measurable but not systemic immediate market disruption. For investors, the combination of recurring coups and weak institutional frameworks implies higher sovereign and political risk premia, greater likelihood of policy unpredictability and potential volatility in local FX, sovereign debt and domestically exposed equities.

Near‑term risks include contagion to neighboring markets and operational disruption for companies reliant on local institutions; medium‑term risk is erosion of foreign investment if administrative multipartyism persists. Active monitoring and scenario planning are warranted given the structural nature of the governance critique presented in the article.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reassess and trim direct exposure to sovereign debt, local‑currency assets and domestically focused equities in countries that have experienced coups or show elevated coup risk
• Increase monitoring of sovereign spreads, FX volatility, capital flows and governance indicators as tactical triggers for portfolio adjustments
• Favor companies with diversified regional/global operations and stronger governance/liquidity over small domestic‑only plays in affected states
• Use hedges where available (sovereign CDS, FX hedges) or shorten duration in vulnerable sovereign bond holdings while maintaining contingency plans for operational disruptions