Will First Citizens (FCNCA) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?

First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) is positioned for a potential earnings beat in its upcoming report, following a consistent track record of surpassing analyst estimates, including an average 7.24% positive surprise over the last two quarters. The company's most recent reported EPS was $37.79, slightly exceeding the $37.72 consensus. This outlook is supported by a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +1.90% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a combination historically indicating a high probability of an earnings beat, with the next report anticipated around July 25, 2025.

Analysis

First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) exhibits quantitative indicators suggesting a potential for continued earnings outperformance in its upcoming quarterly report. The company has a demonstrated history of surpassing consensus estimates, recording an average positive earnings surprise of 7.24% over the last two quarters. This track record includes a significant 14.29% beat in the penultimate quarter (EPS of $45.10 vs. $39.46 estimate) and a more modest 0.19% beat in the most recently reported quarter (EPS of $37.79 vs. $37.72 estimate). Critically, the forward-looking Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is currently positive at +1.90%. This metric, which reflects upward revisions from analysts with the most recent information, combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has historically indicated a nearly 70% probability of an earnings beat. This suggests that analyst sentiment is improving ahead of the next earnings announcement, which is anticipated around July 25, 2025.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors could consider a position in FCNCA ahead of the July 25, 2025, earnings release to potentially capitalize on the high statistical probability of a positive earnings surprise.
• Despite the bullish signals, the stock's #3 (Hold) rating warrants monitoring; any negative shift in the +1.90% Earnings ESP or analyst consensus could temper the outlook.
• Note that while the probability of a beat is emphasized, the magnitude of the most recent surprise was marginal at 0.19%, which should be factored into expectations for any post-earnings price reaction.