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Soybeans Feel Meal Pressure, with Thursday Weakness

NDAQ
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Soybeans Feel Meal Pressure, with Thursday Weakness

Soybean futures closed down 1-3 cents, primarily pressured by soymeal futures hitting their lowest prices since 2016, declining $4.70-$5.40/ton. While USDA export sales data showed 2024/25 soybean sales of 402,931 MT and new crop sales of 156,153 MT (exceeding expectations), soybean meal and oil sales were notably weak. This downward pressure was compounded by Datagro's increased estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop, now at 173.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT.

Analysis

Soybean futures registered losses of 1 to 3 cents, primarily driven by significant weakness in the soymeal market, where futures plummeted by $4.70 to $5.40 per ton, hitting their lowest price point since 2016. This downward pressure on the complex was compounded by an amplified global supply outlook, as Datagro increased its Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 1.5 MMT to 173.5 MMT. While USDA export sales data presented a mixed picture—with new crop soybean sales of 156,153 MT surpassing market expectations and a private sale of 110,000 MT to Egypt confirmed—the demand signals for processed products were notably bearish. Sales for soybean meal (260,074 MT) and soybean oil (4,023 MT) both registered at the low end of analyst estimates, indicating soft demand. Although soy oil futures rose by 56 to 69 points, this strength was insufficient to offset the negative sentiment dominating the broader soybean and soymeal markets.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

moderately negative

Sentiment Score

-0.40

Ticker Sentiment

NDAQ0.00

Key Decisions for Investors

  • Given the multi-year lows in soymeal and an increased Brazilian crop estimate, the current market sentiment for soybeans is bearish, suggesting caution for those holding long positions.
  • Investors should monitor the crush spread, as the divergence between weak soymeal demand and relatively firm soy oil prices is a key performance indicator for the soybean complex.
  • Despite some positive raw bean export sales, these are being overshadowed by weak demand for derivatives and ample supply, meaning any price rallies on export news may present potential selling opportunities until soymeal fundamentals show signs of recovery.