Worried About a Stock Market Crash? These 3 Stocks Beat the S&P 500 by Wide Margins When It Nosedived in 2022, and They Could Do It Again

The article argues that ExxonMobil, Eli Lilly, and Berkshire Hathaway can help reduce portfolio risk because of strong fundamentals and prior outperformance during the 2022 market crash. ExxonMobil is highlighted for its 2.8% dividend and sensitivity to oil prices, Eli Lilly for GLP-1 growth and Foundayo approval, and Berkshire for its 0.70 beta and stability. The piece is mainly a defensive, stock-selection commentary rather than a new market-moving event.

Analysis

The common thread across these three names is not “defensiveness” in a generic sense; it is that each has a different macro hedge embedded in the P&L. XOM is a convex inflation/geopolitics hedge because upstream cash flow responds immediately to commodity shocks, while BRK.B is a balance-sheet and liquidity hedge that typically benefits when risk premia widen and capital becomes scarce. LLY is the outlier: it is less a market hedge than a duration hedge on secular demand, where earnings can re-rate even in a weak tape if growth visibility stays intact.

The second-order effect to watch is factor rotation. If market volatility rises on oil-driven inflation fears, money can leave long-duration growth, but LLY may decouple because its growth is driven by supply-constrained category expansion rather than multiple expansion alone. By contrast, XOM’s upside is likely front-loaded over days to weeks if crude spikes, while BRK.B tends to work more slowly over months as investors seek quality, free cash flow, and capital preservation.

The consensus may be overestimating the persistence of the XOM trade if oil is already digesting geopolitical risk. Energy equities often lag the first move in crude when the market suspects a policy response, demand destruction, or a ceasefire headline within 30-90 days. The better asymmetry is to treat XOM as a tactical hedge, BRK.B as a ballast position, and LLY as a selective growth compounder that can outperform even in a risk-off tape if execution on the next catalyst stays clean.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy XOM only as a 4-8 week geopolitical hedge; target a crude-spike scenario and use a tight stop if front-month oil retraces materially, since the trade is highly headline-dependent.
• Add BRK.B on pullbacks as a 3-12 month defensive core holding; low beta and cash generation make it the cleanest shelter if credit spreads widen and equity leadership narrows.
• Hold or initiate LLY on weakness for a 6-18 month catalyst-driven trade; the setup is stronger if the market keeps discounting the pipeline, but risk/reward improves only if the stock de-risks without a fundamental break.
• Pair trade idea: long BRK.B / short a high-beta market proxy for a volatility pickup scenario; this expresses quality-minus-beta with less commodity exposure than a broad index hedge.
• If owning XOM into any rally, trim into strength after the first oil impulse; the upside is usually fastest in the commodity, slower in the equity, and policy reversal risk rises quickly.