Eli Lilly earnings are coming Thursday. Here's what top analysts expect

Eli Lilly is anticipated to report robust Q2 earnings, with analysts forecasting approximately 30% year-over-year revenue growth driven by strong prescription trends for its GLP-1 drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, which have significantly gained market share, partly due to Novo Nordisk's recent setbacks. Investors are keenly focused on potential updates regarding the experimental GLP-1 pill orforglipron's Phase 3 obesity data and an expected upward revision to the company's 2025 revenue guidance. Despite CVS Health's policy favoring Wegovy, analysts largely dismiss it as a major headwind, maintaining high price targets and expecting further catalysts to propel Lilly shares.

Analysis

Eli Lilly (LLY) is positioned for a strong second-quarter earnings report, fundamentally benefiting from the significant operational and competitive headwinds facing its primary rival, Novo Nordisk (NVO). While NVO's stock has declined approximately 47% year-to-date following a guidance cut attributed to competition from compounding pharmacies, LLY is capturing significant market share. Consensus estimates project LLY's Q2 revenue will reach $14.71 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase, driven by robust prescription growth for its GLP-1 drugs. Zepbound scripts have surged 45% quarter-over-quarter, expanding its market share by 600 basis points to 65.5%, while Mounjaro scripts grew 16.3%. Near-term catalysts are highly anticipated, including the upcoming earnings call, which is scheduled at an unusual time, suggesting potential material announcements. Investors are keenly focused on the imminent Phase 3 data for orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 drug, where an efficacy bar of 12-15% weight loss is expected. While CVS Caremark's decision to grant favored status to NVO's Wegovy presents a potential headwind, analysts believe the impact is manageable, citing strong new prescription trends for Zepbound that are eclipsing patient switches. Consequently, the market broadly expects management to raise the low end of its $58-$61 billion full-year 2025 revenue guidance.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor the upcoming Q2 earnings report for confirmation of strong Zepbound and Mounjaro sales figures and any upward revision to the 2025 revenue guidance, as this is a key consensus expectation.
• The imminent release of Phase 3 data for the oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron is a critical catalyst; a positive outcome demonstrating 12-15% weight loss with a clean safety profile would likely serve as a significant de-risking event and growth driver.
• Closely evaluate management's commentary on the real-world impact of the CVS Caremark formulary change, as this remains the primary near-term uncertainty despite initial data suggesting it is a manageable headwind.
• Consider the competitive dynamic as a key factor, where further weakness or stumbles from Novo Nordisk could directly translate into accelerated market share gains and upside for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 franchise.