GLJ Research Downgrades United States Steel (XTRA:USX1)

GLJ Research downgraded United States Steel (XTRA:USX1) to Sell on May 30, 2025, with the average analyst price target suggesting a 17.74% downside from the latest closing price of 46,50 €/share. Despite a projected 4.79% increase in annual revenue to 15,935MM, fund ownership has slightly decreased by 1.40% in the last quarter, although total shares owned by institutions increased by 1.09%; Pentwater Capital Management and iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF increased their positions, while Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares decreased theirs.

Analysis

United States Steel (XTRA:USX1) faces a challenging outlook following a downgrade from Buy to Sell by GLJ Research on May 30, 2025, with the average analyst one-year price target of €38.25 suggesting a significant 17.74% downside from its latest closing price of €46.50 per share as of May 7, 2025. This bearish sentiment, underscored by a moderately negative overall sentiment score of -0.35, contrasts with the company's projected annual revenue growth of 4.79% to 15,935MM and a projected non-GAAP EPS of 2.87. Institutional sentiment appears mixed: while the total shares owned by institutions increased by 1.09% in the last three months to 239,681K shares and the average portfolio weight in USX1 rose by 9.03%, the actual number of funds reporting positions decreased by 1.40%. This divergence is further evidenced by specific fund activities; for instance, Pentwater Capital Management increased its share count by 3.89% but reduced its portfolio allocation by 1.62%, iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF increased both shares (0.45%) and allocation (32.29%), while Massachusetts Financial Services, despite increasing shares by 12.26%, drastically cut its portfolio allocation in USX1 by 77.50%, indicating varied conviction levels and strategic repositioning among large investors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should primarily consider the GLJ Research downgrade to 'Sell' and the average analyst price target indicating a 17.74% potential downside from the €46.50 closing price as significant near-term risk factors, even with projected revenue growth of 4.79% and a non-GAAP EPS of 2.87.
• Carefully evaluate the mixed institutional ownership signals, where an increase in total shares owned (1.09%) and average portfolio weight (9.03%) is offset by a 1.40% decrease in the number of fund owners and notable allocation reductions by some large holders like Massachusetts Financial Services.
• Existing holders may wish to review their positions in United States Steel, and prospective investors should exercise caution, weighing the positive fundamental projections against the prevailing bearish analyst sentiment and the potential for stock price depreciation towards the €38.25 consensus target.