The Trump administration is quietly assembling fallback legal strategies to restore his country-based tariffs if the Supreme Court strikes down his IEEPA-based authority, with Commerce and USTR vetting alternatives including Sections 301, 122, 232 and even rarely used Section 338 — each of which is slower, more limited or likely to draw fresh litigation. Bloomberg Economics estimates U.S. effective tariff rates are about 14.4% with more than half from IEEPA duties, and a court defeat could force refunds of more than $88 billion, prompting steps such as new 301 investigations (notably Brazil) and consideration of 122’s 15%/150-day tool despite its constraints. The moves underscore the administration’s determination to keep tariffs central to policy and create renewed legal and commercial uncertainty for businesses and foreign governments as officials prepare to “find ways” to reimpose levies if necessary.
The Trump administration is assembling fallback legal strategies should the Supreme Court strike down IEEPA-based country tariffs, with the Commerce Department and USTR vetting alternatives including Sections 301, 122, 232 and the rarely used Section 338. Officials acknowledge these alternatives are slower, more limited or likely to invite fresh litigation, while the administration continues to signal a commitment to restoring tariffs by whatever lawful means are available. Bloomberg Economics estimates the U.S. effective tariff rate at about 14.4%, with more than half attributable to IEEPA duties, and warns that an adverse ruling could force refunds exceeding $88 billion. Section 122 would permit up to 15% tariffs for a 150-day window, Section 301 typically requires lengthy investigations (notably already opened against Brazil), and Section 232 has been applied to metals and autos, highlighting distinct operational constraints across tools. The policy contingency planning and judicial skepticism create heightened near-term uncertainty for trade-dependent firms, foreign governments and supply chains, raising the likelihood of sectoral volatility in metals, autos and finished manufactured goods. Novel legal fights over authorities such as Section 338 and procedural workarounds (timing, retroactivity, refunds) could prolong uncertainty; the Supreme Court decision timing will be the immediate market catalyst and announcements from Commerce/USTR or new investigations should be treated as high-impact signals.
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