Greif (GEF) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

Greif (GEF) is expected to report earnings of $1.08 per share on revenues of $1.43 billion for the quarter ending April 2025, representing year-over-year growth of 31.7% and 4.1% respectively; however, the company's Earnings ESP is -1.40%, suggesting analysts have become more bearish and making an earnings beat less certain. While Greif has beaten EPS estimates in half of the last four quarters, its last reported quarter showed a significant negative surprise, and the stock's reaction to the upcoming earnings release on June 4 will depend on whether it can outperform expectations.

Analysis

Greif (GEF) is anticipated to report substantial year-over-year growth for the quarter ending April 2025, with consensus estimates projecting a 31.7% increase in earnings per share to $1.08 and a 4.1% rise in revenues to $1.43 billion. These estimates have remained stable over the past 30 days, suggesting a consistent view among covering analysts. However, a key predictive indicator, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), stands at -1.40%. This negative ESP, resulting from the Most Accurate Estimate being lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, implies that analysts have recently adopted a more bearish outlook on Greif's immediate earnings potential. Compounding this caution, Greif carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which, when combined with a negative ESP, makes it challenging to definitively predict an earnings beat. The company's recent track record also warrants attention: in the last reported quarter, Greif missed earnings expectations by a significant -45.83% (actual $0.39 vs. expected $0.72), and over the last four quarters, it has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only twice. While the headline growth forecasts are positive, these counter-signals suggest that Greif is not a compelling earnings-beat candidate, and its stock performance post-announcement on June 4 will heavily depend on the actual results versus these expectations and management's subsequent commentary.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should approach Greif's upcoming earnings report with caution, given the negative Earnings ESP of -1.40% and the significant earnings miss in the previous quarter, despite projections for strong year-over-year growth.
• Closely scrutinize the actual reported figures against the consensus estimates of $1.08 EPS and $1.43 billion in revenue, as well as management's guidance and commentary on business conditions during the earnings call, as these will be critical drivers for the stock's near-term direction.
• Given the mixed signals—projected growth versus bearish recent analyst revisions and a 50% earnings beat history in the last four quarters—investors might consider the potential for volatility and re-evaluate their positions based on the outcome of the June 4 report.