New research links health impacts related to 'forever chemicals' to billions in economic losses

University of Arizona-led research published in PNAS analyzing all New Hampshire births from 2010–2019 finds that mothers drawing drinking water from groundwater “downstream” of PFAS-contaminated sites experienced significantly higher first-year infant mortality, elevated preterm birth rates (including births before 28 weeks) and more very low birth-weight infants versus comparable “upstream” mothers using a quasi-random exposure design. Extrapolating these outcomes to the contiguous U.S., the authors estimate at least $8 billion per year in social costs — including medical care, long-term health impacts and lost lifetime earnings — tied to legacy long-chain PFAS (PFOA, PFOS), and argue that cleanup, regulation and mitigation (e.g., activated carbon filters) would produce substantial net health and economic benefits. The paper underscores the persistence of PFAS in soils and groundwater, calls for further study of newer PFAS and long-term exposure, and frames remediation as likely cost-effective given the estimated damages.

Analysis

A University of Arizona-led study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analyzed all New Hampshire births from 2010–2019 using groundwater "downstream" versus "upstream" exposure as a quasi-random design and found statistically significant increases in first-year infant mortality, higher preterm birth rates (including more births <28 weeks), and more very low birth-weight infants (below 5.5 pounds and below 2.2 pounds) for mothers drawing downstream water.

The authors extrapolate those health outcomes to the contiguous U.S., estimating at least $8 billion per year in social costs that include medical care, long-term health impacts and reduced lifetime earnings; the study focuses on legacy long-chain PFAS (PFOA and PFOS) which are no longer manufactured in the U.S. but remain in soils and continue to percolate into groundwater. Coauthor Derek Lemoine argues that comparing estimated damages to cleanup costs makes remediation economically compelling, and the paper notes its $8 billion estimate is a lower bound.

The research highlights practical mitigation options—activated carbon filters at utilities or homes remove these long-chain PFAS—and calls for follow-up work on newer PFAS and long-term exposure. Implications for investors include increased regulatory and remediation-driven demand for water-treatment and cleanup services, potential liability and fiscal pressure for contaminated sites, and a need to monitor state and federal policy and scientific developments closely.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reassess exposure to municipal utilities and local governments in PFAS-affected regions given likely capex increases for remediation and the potential for rate-recovery petitions
• Consider selective exposure to water-treatment and remediation technology providers (including activated carbon filtration and groundwater cleanup services) as potential beneficiaries of sustained demand from cleanup and regulation
• Monitor regulatory and litigation developments around PFAS closely and hedge or reduce positions in sectors with legacy PFAS liabilities (industrial chemical users, firefighting foam end-users, product manufacturers) if policy action accelerates
• Stress-test municipal and utility credit exposure in geographies with known PFAS contamination for contingent liabilities and budgetary implications, and watch further research that could widen the estimated social-costs baseline