What's open, closed on Christmas Day 2025? What to know about pharmacies, grocery stores, and more

Major national retailers including Aldi, Walmart and Costco will be closed on Christmas Day 2025 while a range of convenience chains and select grocery locations (Albertsons, Safeway) and many convenience/food outlets (7-Eleven, Circle K, CVS, Walgreens, Dunkin', McDonald's, Starbucks, Sheetz, Duane Reade) will have variable or modified hours. Financial institutions such as Wells Fargo and Bank of America and the U.S. Postal Service will be closed, FedEx locations are closed on Dec. 25 with modified hours on Dec. 24, and most UPS stores will be closed though UPS Express Critical remains available. The operational implication is limited brick-and-mortar access and shifted consumer demand to open convenience formats or pre-holiday purchasing, with predictable short-term impacts on last-mile logistics and holiday delivery volumes rather than material market-moving effects.

Analysis

Market structure: The holiday closures concentrate a modest, predictable revenue shift toward convenience/foodservice/pharmacy operators (CVS, MCD, SBUX, WBA) and away from big-box grocers (WMT, COST) and parcel operators (FDX, UPS) for one day. Expect impact on weekly sales in the single-digit percentage of 0.5–2% range — not material to full-year earnings but relevant for near-term flow and sentiment. Pricing power is unchanged; share moves will be driven by headline miss/beat vs. very low market expectations.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include weather-driven surge in emergency retail demand, a last-mile strike at UPS/FDX, or a fuel shock that would amplify holiday logistics costs and could shave 2–5% off quarterly EBIT for carriers. Immediate (days) risk is last-mile execution; short-term (weeks) risk is returns/re-stocking costs and guidance revisions; long-term (quarters) effects are minimal absent labor/regulatory shocks. Hidden dependency: ecommerce returns and expedited Jan restocking can create lumpy January volumes for both retailers and carriers.

Trade implications: Tactical longs: bias to MCD and CVS for defensive, holiday-day revenue capture; tactical shorts or put spreads on FDX/UPS if near-term shipping metrics decline >3% WoW or if management pre-announces weaker guidance. Pair trade: long MCD (1–1.5% portfolio) / short WMT (1–1.5%) into Dec 24–Jan 31 to capture convenience premium. Options: buy 2–4 week call spreads on MCD/SBUX and 2-week put spreads on FDX sized to 0.5–1% portfolio risk.

Contrarian angles: The consensus treats closures as negative for big-box but ignores that this is fully seasonal and recurring — any >3% intraday selloff in WMT/COST is likely overdone and historically mean-reverting within 2–6 weeks. Conversely, carriers priced for underperformance could snap back if Jan volumes normalize; avoid large outright multi-quarter shorts on FDX/UPS without a clear labor/guidance catalyst. Monitor daily parcel volume prints and retailer same-store-sales releases for decisive signals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1–1.5% portfolio long in MCD between Dec 24–26 to capture holiday convenience uplift; if MCD same-store-sales (SSS) prints +100bps vs. consensus in Jan, add to 3% weight; hard stop -6% or exit Jan 15 if SSS misses by >100bps.
• Establish a 0.75–1% notional long via Jan 17, 2026 CVS 2.5% OTM call spread (sell higher strike to finance) to capture pharmacy holiday/morning foot traffic; close by Jan 31 or if CVS issues guidance cut >2% EPS.
• Deploy a tactical 0.5–1% portfolio short via 2-week put spreads on FDX (size to limit downside) if daily parcel volume metrics fall >3% WoW or if FDX/UPS pre-announce weaker guidance; if neither catalyst occurs, close by Jan 10.
• Run a pair trade long MCD (1.5%) / short WMT (1.5%) from Dec 24–Jan 31 to exploit predictable holiday-day footfall shift; unwind if spread narrows to historical mean or if WMT drops >5% (re-evaluate for buy-the-dip).