Invitation to Presentation of Scandic’s Q4 and Year-End Report 2025

Scandic Hotels Group will publish its Q4 and Year‑End Report for 2025 at 07:30 CET on 18 February 2026 and host an English-language webcast and telephone conference at 09:00 CET presented by CEO Jens Mathiesen and CFO Pär Christiansen. Scandic operates about 280 hotels with roughly 58,000 rooms across six countries and is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm; investors should monitor the release for occupancy, revenue and margin trends in the Nordic travel & leisure sector.

Analysis

Market structure: The upcoming Feb 18 Q4/YE webcast is a discrete liquidity event that primarily benefits Scandic (SCAND.ST) equity holders, Nordic hotel REITs and loyalty partners if management signals improved ADR and occupancy; losers include lower-cost pan‑European operators if Scandic extracts price premiums. With ~280 hotels/58k rooms and ongoing development, supply growth is moderate—a continued leisure/corporate travel rebound would lift pricing power in Nordics before broader Europe, tightening local room supply/demand for 6–18 months. Cross-asset: a positive beat should tighten Scandic’s credit spreads (Nordic HY), strengthen SEK by 0.5–2% vs EUR/SEK over weeks, and lift hotel sector vols; a miss will widen spreads and FX move opposite.

Risk assessment: Tail risks are macro-driven travel shock (recession or energy-driven travel curbs), strike/regulatory actions in Nordics, or covenant breaches from aggressive expansion—each can inflict 25–50% equity drawdowns. Immediate horizon (days): elevated IV and knee‑jerk moves around Feb 18; short-term (1–3 months): guidance revision and analyst re-rates; long-term (12–36 months): pipeline dilution and capex/ESG compliance weigh on FCF. Hidden dependencies include Scandic Friends monetization, corporate mix recovery (>30% business travel needed to restore pre‑COVID margin), and franchise vs. management fee mix.

Trade implications: Direct: small tactical long in SCAND.ST sized 2–3% NAV only if IV is below 30% else use call spreads to cap premium; short/hedge via AC.PA (Accor) to isolate Nordic outperformance over 3 months. Options: buy a Feb‑expiring straddle if implied vol is < realized vol last 12 quarters (threshold >25% realized) or establish a 3‑month 10% OTM protective put if downside risk >12%. Rotate +1.5% into Nordic travel/Leisure long bucket and trim Euro-wide hospitality longs by 1–2%.

Contrarian angles: Consensus will focus on headline occupancy—market may underprice loyalty program ARPU lift and ancillary revenue (F&B, meetings) worth ~2–4% adj. EBITDA upside; conversely, investors underappreciate dilution risk from the development pipeline and ESG capex that can compress margins by 100–200bps over 12–24 months. Historical analogue: post‑COVID 2022 regional recoveries outperformed pan‑EU peers for ~9 months before normalization; if Scandic beats, expect a kneejerk 10–20% rerating, but sustainability depends on stated cash conversion and leverage targets.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical long in Scandic Hotels (SCAND.ST) equal to 2–3% of portfolio NAV ahead of the Feb 18 report only if implied volatility <30%; set stop-loss at 8% and take-profit at 15% within a 4–6 week window, otherwise use a 3‑month call spread (buy ATM, sell 15% OTM) sized to same delta to limit premium.
• If report misses or guidance is cut, deploy a defensive put hedge: buy 3‑month SCAND.ST 10% OTM puts sized to 1.5% NAV or sell 1.5% NAV of the position intraday on a >12% gap down to preserve capital.
• Execute a 3‑month pair trade: long SCAND.ST (2% NAV) and short ACCOR (AC.PA) (1.5% NAV) to express Nordic outperformance vs pan‑European exposure; rebalance if differential performance exceeds 12% absolute.
• Reduce exposure to Nordic high‑yield hospitality credit by 25–30% over next 2 weeks and buy 1‑month SEK protection (long 1M EUR/SEK or USD/SEK calls) sized to hedge currency exposure if Scandic misses guidance, as a miss could weaken SEK 0.5–2% within 1–4 weeks.