Corn Extends Bounce to a Second Day to Close Out July

Corn futures closed higher on Thursday, with cash prices also rising, driven by robust export demand. New crop bookings for 2025/26 surged to a marketing year high of 1.892 MMT, significantly exceeding trade estimates, with notable private sales to South Korea, Colombia, and unknown destinations. This strong demand was complemented by solid old crop sales, which doubled last year's figures, alongside new trade policy developments including a 15% US tariff on South Korean goods and a 90-day extension of the US-Mexico tariff pause.

Analysis

Corn futures demonstrated strength, closing higher by 1 to 2.25 cents, driven by a confluence of robust export data and favorable trade policy developments. The most significant bullish catalyst was new crop bookings for the 2025/26 marketing year, which reached a high of 1.892 million metric tons (MMT), substantially exceeding trade estimates of 0.6 to 1.6 MMT. This forward demand was underscored by large private sales to South Korea, Colombia, and unknown destinations. Concurrently, old crop sales for the week ending July 24, while down from the prior week, remained strong at 340,924 MT, more than double the volume from the same week last year, indicating healthy demand for current inventories. The market backdrop was further supported by the extension of the US-Mexico tariff pause for 90 days, securing a key export channel in the near term. While a new 15% US tariff on South Korean goods was announced, a simultaneous large sale to the country suggests agricultural trade remains active.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The combination of a marketing year high in new crop bookings and old crop sales doubling year-over-year provides a strong bullish signal, suggesting investors may find the current environment supportive of long positions in corn futures or related ETFs.
• Investors should closely monitor the evolving trade policy landscape, as the 90-day US-Mexico tariff pause provides only short-term certainty, and the full impact of the new US tariff structure with South Korea on agricultural trade remains to be seen.
• The contango in the futures curve, with December contracts at $4.13 3/4 and March at $4.30 1/2, indicates market expectations for tighter supply or stronger demand ahead, a trend that warrants attention for positioning in deferred contracts.