Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures trade lackluster after Nvidia fails to wow

US stock futures remained largely steady as investors processed key economic data and Nvidia's earnings. Nvidia initially saw pre-market losses due to data-center sales concerns but recovered after CEO Jensen Huang touted "extraordinary" Blackwell chip demand and a $50 billion China opportunity, signaling continued strength in the AI trade. Concurrently, US Q2 GDP was revised upward to an annualized 3.3% growth, exceeding estimates and rebounding from Q1's 0.5% contraction, primarily driven by decreased imports. Jobless claims also fell, indicating low layoffs. This combination of resilient tech earnings and stronger-than-expected macro data supported market sentiment, keeping indices near record highs ahead of Friday's critical PCE inflation report.

Analysis

The US equity market is exhibiting a holding pattern near all-time highs, balancing resilient corporate guidance against a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Nvidia's (NVDA) pre-market session encapsulated this dynamic; an initial drop of up to 3.5% on disappointing data-center sales was entirely reversed following CEO Jensen Huang's commentary highlighting "extraordinary" demand for its next-generation Blackwell chips and a potential $50 billion opportunity in China. This pivot underscores the market's continued conviction in the long-term AI narrative, prioritizing forward-looking statements over specific quarterly misses. This tech-centric optimism is further supported by Snowflake's (SNOW) strong results but is contrasted by CrowdStrike's (CRWD) decline on signals of cautious client spending, indicating divergence within the sector. On the macro front, an upward revision of Q2 GDP to 3.3% annualized growth, driven largely by a tariff-related decrease in imports, provides a positive headline but suggests underlying complexities. Meanwhile, falling jobless claims point to a stable labor market, though tepid hiring adds a note of caution. All eyes now turn to the upcoming PCE inflation data, which is positioned as the week's critical catalyst and will heavily influence sentiment and central bank policy expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given Nvidia's recovery on strong forward guidance and Snowflake's surge, maintain exposure to the core AI theme but prioritize companies with clear, near-term product cycles like Blackwell over those with more generalized AI exposure.
• The divergence between Snowflake's AI-driven growth and CrowdStrike's client caution suggests a need for selective positioning within technology, favoring infrastructure enablers over software firms sensitive to broader enterprise budget scrutiny.
• While the 3.3% GDP growth is supportive, investors should remain cautious ahead of Friday's PCE inflation report, as an unfavorable reading could quickly challenge the market's current stability and prompt a re-evaluation of Fed policy.
• The impact of tariffs on both GDP calculations and individual stock volatility, as seen with HP (HPQ), requires investors to actively monitor trade policy developments as a distinct risk factor for supply chains and corporate profitability.