Corn Popping Higher at Midday, Helped by Better than Expected Export Business

Corn futures gained 5 to 6 ¼ cents on Thursday, buoyed by exceptionally strong new crop export sales totaling 3.16 MMT, which pushed total 2025/26 sales to 11.777 MMT, the second highest on record. This significant forward demand overshadowed weaker old crop sales and a year-over-year decline in Brazil's July exports, providing upward momentum after December futures held the $4 level.

Analysis

Corn futures are exhibiting bullish momentum, with contracts rising 5 to 6 ¼ cents and the key December contract successfully defending the $4.00 technical level. The primary driver for this upward movement is a stark divergence in export sales data. While old crop sales for the week of July 31 were notably weak at 170,428 MT, falling below estimates, this was heavily outweighed by exceptionally strong new crop bookings for the 2025/26 marketing year. These forward sales totaled 3.16 MMT, substantially surpassing the expected range of 1.3-2.5 MMT and elevating the total commitment to 11.777 MMT—the second-highest level on record for this period. This surge in future demand is compounded by a favorable competitive landscape, as Brazil's July corn exports declined 31.51% year-over-year due to a slower harvest and logistical bottlenecks, reducing near-term supply pressure from a key global competitor.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The combination of record-setting new crop export sales and the successful defense of a key technical price level suggests a bullish outlook, warranting consideration of long positions in corn futures or related instruments.
• Investors should closely monitor subsequent weekly USDA export sales reports to confirm the sustainability of this strong forward demand, which is the primary catalyst for the current price rally.
• It is crucial to track Brazilian harvest progress and export logistics, as a continued slowdown from this key competitor could provide further support for U.S. corn prices.