Fineqia's Matteo Greco discusses crypto market trends

Fineqia senior associate Matteo Greco said 2025 reinforced the trend of strong institutional demand for crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) even as digital-asset prices fell, with total inflows roughly matching prior-year levels that benefited from earlier price strength and US spot-ETF approvals. Ethereum ETPs saw disproportionately strong inflows relative to market cap, altcoin ETPs remained resilient aided by new US ETF launches, and Q4 weakness was attributed to year-end rebalancing, profit-taking and macro/geopolitical caution; Greco expects short-term ETP demand to track price action but longer-term issuance and investor interest across the US and Europe to remain constructive.

Analysis

Market structure: ETP issuers, custodians and listed-derivatives venues are the primary beneficiaries—asset managers (BlackRock/BLK-style franchises), Coinbase (COIN) as a custodian/trading venue, and CME (CME) for futures see fee and flow capture while retail spot exchanges and OTC desks lose share. Strong ETP inflows despite falling prices imply demand is driven by institutional allocation mandates and product availability rather than pure price momentum; expect continued AUM growth of 10–30% YoY in ETP channels if product launches persist.

Risk assessment: Principal tail risks are regulatory reversal (US/EU restrictions on spot ETPs) and operational shocks ( >$500m custody breach) that could force redemptions and fire sales; these are low probability but high impact within 30–90 days. Short-term (days-weeks) volatility will track price action and quarter-end rebalancings; medium-term (3–12 months) outcome depends on new US/EU launches and macro liquidity (rate cuts increase ETP inflows).

Trade implications: Prefer cross-sector exposure—long asset managers and derivatives venues over spot-native exchanges—via listed names (BLK, CME, COIN) while targeting direct crypto exposure via regulated ETPs or futures. Implement relative plays: long ETH exposure vs short BTC to capture rotation (target 5–15% absolute relative move over 3 months); use limited option-defined risk structures to control tail losses.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates liquidity mismatches—ETP AUM can be sticky and create sustained price support, but premiums/discounts can spike if APs withdraw; historical parallel: 2017–18 ETF/ETP run-ups that reversed sharply. Monitor ETP premium >3% or AP dysfunction as an early warning; if those appear, rapid de-risk is warranted.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio position split equally between BlackRock (BLK) and CME Group (CME) to capture fee/volatility upside from ETP issuance and derivatives flow; hold 3–6 months and reassess if crypto ETP AUM growth <10% YoY or if either stock drops >8%.
• Initiate a 3-month tactical relative position: long ETH exposure vs short BTC via CME-listed futures (size ETH = 1.2 x BTC notional) to exploit broadening institutional demand for Ethereum; enter when ETH/BTC 30-day relative performance >+2%, target 5–15% relative gain, stop-loss on a 10% adverse move.
• Take a speculative 0.5–1% position in FNQQF (Fineqia) to capture upside from product expansion and advisory visibility; hold 6–12 months and exit if Fineqia AUM or client pipeline growth lags peers by >50% over 6 months or if regulatory constraints on ETPs tighten.
• Buy 3-month call spreads on Coinbase (COIN): buy a 25% OTM call and sell a 35% OTM call sized to risk 1% of portfolio, to benefit from flow-driven trading revs if ETP volumes accelerate; trim half if implied vol falls >20% after entry.
• Set hard risk triggers to de-risk within 30–60 days: reduce crypto-equity exposure by 50% if (a) SEC/EU issues restrictive spot ETP rules, (b) any major custody/exchange hack >$500m, or (c) any leading ETP trades >3% premium/discount for 7+ consecutive days.